It would be easy to dismiss the Dunkley by-election as a non-event that changes very little in the federal political landscape.
Labor retained a seat it held prior to incumbent Peta Murphy's death and the swing against the government was on par with decades of history in by-elections.
But while the electoral map might not have changed, the vote in the outer suburban, coastal electorate offers insights into how the next federal election might play out.
Here are five key takeaways.
Liberal Party and Victoria
Much has been made about the state of the Liberal Party in Victoria. Be it the drubbings it's faced at recent state elections or that the party lost four seats at the last federal election, there's no secret about the issues Victorian Liberals are facing.
While the National Party held all of its seats in 2022, the Liberals lost two to independents (Goldstein and Kooyong) and two to Labor (Higgins and Chisholm).
And since then, it's only become worse.
Labor last year pulled off a one-in-100 years feat, winning the outer suburban seat of Aston from the opposition.
Russell Broadbent's move to the crossbench after failing to win pre-selection last year has the party now holding just six of the state's 39 federal seats.
Victorian Liberal and frontbencher Dan Tehan, while seeking to put a positive spin on loss on Sunday morning, made no secret of the reality his party faces in his home state if it wants to form government.
"Of course we need to win seats in Victoria," he told the ABC's Insiders program.
The Liberal battle in Victoria is not unlike Labor's challenge in Queensland, where it too needs to find seats if it's to hold onto majority government. Labor holds just five of Queensland's 30 electorates.
Loading...Coalition's suburban path to government
Privately, few in the Liberals are talking up their prospect of wining many, if any, of the once heartland seats their party lost to the teal independents at the last election.
Without these seats, the Coalition needs to overcome decades of history and re-write Australia's electoral map.
To achieve that Peter Dutton will need to make reality what Scott Morrison once dreamed — eating into Labor's heartland in outer suburban seats.
That path hit a major roadblock last night.
Dunkley, prior to 2019 when Peta Murphy won the seat, was a Liberal seat for more than two decades.
This makes the seat a must win if it is to seriously think it can take seats from Labor that the Liberals haven't won in decades, if ever.
Labor too knows the issues it faces in some suburban seats, especially in Western Sydney, where the party's response to the conflict in the Middle East has faced backlash from communities outraged that the ALP appeared too close to Israel.
The only silver lining for Labor is that these voters are unlikely to shift their support to the Coalition, which has been far more supportive of Israel's response to the October 7 terror attacks.
Loading...Stage 3 tax cuts
Labor's decision to revise the Coalition's stage 3 tax cuts put a spring in its backbench's step, coming off a bruising second half of 2023, where some felt the party was too invested in the Voice to Parliament and not focused enough on living costs.
The Coalition, which ultimately backed the changes, sought to capitalise on Labor breaking its election commitment, accusing the government of only doing it to win Dunkley.
After flirting with attacking Labor over what other taxes it might be set to change, the opposition quickly changed focus to something government was actually doing — seeking to change to fuel efficiency standards.
That new standard will require car companies to supply more fuel efficient vehicles to consumers, which Labor says will bring in greater competition in car markets and make fuel bills cheaper.
The Coalition has dubbed it a "ute and family car tax", arguing it will force Australians to pay more for the vehicles they want to drive.
Announcing the fuel efficiency policy so close to the Dunkley by-election raised eyebrows among some in the government. But cabinet minister Jason Clare on Sunday told Sky News that his party needs to "fight fear with facts".
As for stage 3, pollsters and politicians say the changes didn't appear to be a major issue on voters minds in Dunkley.
Victorian senator and Liberal frontbencher Jane Hume on Sunday morning wondered if it would be a slow burn issue, where voters will be more aware when they see the extra money in their take home pay.
Loading...Leader popularity
If 24 hours is a long time in politics, a year is a lifetime.
Think back to that Aston by-election and the rhetoric coming out of it.
Peter Dutton was on the ropes and unelectable to Victorians. Albanese, the still new and popular prime minister, had an air of invincibility.
Both men ended the year in opposing manners. Dutton had slayed Albanese's Voice and his first-term government was suddenly looking shaky.
That Dutton campaigned in Dunkley during the by-election, even if not on polling day, suggests the Coalition doesn't view him as persona non grata in the southern state.
Albanese was active on the campaign and if his constant rounds of morning radio interviews are anything to go off, he too seems to have shaken off the pall that was hanging over him last year.
Likely, neither man were that influential in the result in Dunkley. Both parties picked candidates who were known to voters and leave the battle having impressed.
That the by-election was the result of the death of a popular incumbent, who'd turned a marginal Coalition seat to safe Labor, rather than a scandal has helped the government in retaining the seat.
Third-party threats
Albanese and Labor were emphatic winners of the 2022 election. But their hold on majority government is wafer thin.
Labor MPs are in 78 of the 151 seats in the House of Representatives and is in need of finding seats to win if it wants to stay in majority. The Coalition's challenge is much steeper, now holding just 55 seats.
Speaking with Labor MPs and they know all too well that at least three seats — Bennelong in Sydney, Tangney in Perth and Aston — have Labor representatives that in any other year would likely be Liberals.
Losing these doesn't mean Labor wouldn't hold onto government, nor does is suggest the Coalition would take power.
The most likely outcome would be a Labor minority, supported by Greens or other crossbench MPs.
Dunkley offers a mixed bag for how crossbench parties might perform at the next election.
The Greens went backwards, while One Nation and United Australia didn't run.
The teal movement says it's seeking to expand the number of independents, with a special focus on Queensland.
Dunkley might not have offered many insights into this but highlights the battle ahead in the next year for those seeking to run the country.
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2024-03-03 02:17:34Z
CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDI0LTAzLTAzL2R1bmtsZXktYnllbGVjdGlvbi1rZXktdGFrZW91dHMtbGFib3ItY29hbGl0aW9uLWR1dHRvbi1hbGJhbmVzZS8xMDM1MzI1MDDSAShodHRwczovL2FtcC5hYmMubmV0LmF1L2FydGljbGUvMTAzNTMyNTAw
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