Tasmania is headed for a minority government, with the Liberal Party expected to win the most seats but not enough to govern in its own right at Saturday’s election.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff called the snap early election last month to try to form a majority government for the Liberals.
But a new poll suggests the party will fail to reach a majority in the expanded 35-seat parliament.
Seat-by-seat polling conducted by Freshwater Strategy a fortnight ago, and published in The Mercury on Friday, points to the Liberals winning 15 seats, Labor nine, the Greens four, the Jacqui Lambie Network three and four independents.
More than 400,000 Tasmanians will vote for 167 candidates in the election for the 35-seat parliament. Under the Hare-Clarke system, seven MPs will be elected in each of the state’s five electorates.
A win for Labor would mean Australia no longer has a Liberal government in any state.
The Liberal Party has been in minority government since May 2023 when two MPs – John Tucker and Lara Alexander – quit the party to sit on the cross benches.
The pair had an agreement with Mr Rockliff to guarantee his government supply and confidence before the election.
But the Premier wanted a tighter agreement after they supported opposition motions and criticised his government, including by sending minister Guy Barnett to the privileges committee.
He has refused to discuss who he would negotiate with if a hung parliament was the result of Saturday’s election.
Mr Rockliff this week reiterated the need for Tasmania to have a majority government.
“What I’m about is majority government. Tasmania does better with a majority government, especially a Liberal majority government,” Mr Rockliff said this week.
THE LAMBIE EFFECT
A team of candidates running under the Jacqui Lambie Network could decide who ends up in government.
Polling obtained by Sky News Australia indicating her party may be the kingmaker after the election.
But the outspoken senator for Tasmania, who has been campaigning with the team, said the state’s Liberal Party had purchased a website domain to create a fake website attacking her party.
“They’ve obviously set up a page and by that they’ve used my face, my name and directed, and sent 7000 text messages out there from an unknown candidate in the Liberal Party who had no idea,” she told Sky News Australia Chief Anchor Kieran Gilbert on Thursday.
Senator Lambie said it was up to her candidates to decide who they would support if it was a hung parliament.
“Those candidates will have to make their own decisions at that table … I’m happy to sit there and mentor them, but I’ve got to stay that step back,” she said.
“I’ve got to find that very fine line because I need these guys to grow as quickly as possible.”
Opposition federal environment spokesman Jonathon Duniam said on Friday the Jacqui Lambie Network had potential to create “chaos” in Saturday’s election.
“The thing about the Jacqui Lambie Network is it’s a collection of individuals who have different views on different issues which, I think, is a big part of the problem,” Senator Duniam told Sky News.
“People have talked about this coalition of chaos and it’s something Tasmanians know all too well they need to avoid at the ballot box.
“My strong and fervent hope is for a majority Liberal government.”
THE KEY ISSUES
The cost-of-living crisis has been a key factor in the election with both leaders questioned on their plans to tackle the issue.
Mr Rockliff said the government’s policies included a one-off renewable energy dividend of $250 to Tasmanian households and $300 to small businesses, as well as slashing the state’s public transport fees.
He also said the Liberal Party would invest in child and learning centres by introducing four more across the state to support families.
Labor leader Rebecca White said cost of living was the “number one issue” in the state and also focused on funding childcare, through an investment of $75m in the sector.
Meanwhile, the contentious AFL stadium was another dominant issue, with the launch of the Tasmanian Devils AFL franchise on Monday. Neither leader attended.
Many do not want a new $750m stadium built in Hobart, but support having a team in the AFL.
Mr Rockliff has pledged to cap the state’s contribution to the stadium at $375 million, saying “not a red cent more”.
“We can have both in Tasmania, we can secure our own AFL team and invest in the areas that I know Tasmanians care about … cost of living, health,” he said.
Ms White has said she wanted Tasmanians to have their own team, but it didn’t mean the state needed a new stadium,
“I’ve been clear, it’s not our priority to put taxpayer funds into a project like that when we’ve got people who can’t access health care.”
The stadium, to be built on Hobart’s waterfront, is forecast to cost up to $1bn.
Mr Rockliff said only his government could be guaranteed to go ahead with construction of the stadium, a key condition of the AFL’s decision to grant Tasmania the licence for a professional team.
“The Tassie team is at risk and Tasmanians cannot afford that risk, and for the Tassie team and the Tassie Devils, Tasmanians must vote 1 to 7 for their Liberal candidates tomorrow.”
THE HARE-CLARKE SYSTEM
A record 408,197 Tasmanians will vote for 167 candidates in the state’s five seats of Bass, Braddon, Clark, Franklin and Lyons
Seven MPs from each seat will be elected under a quota system, meaning a total of 35 MPs will be elected. But the full results are unlikely to be known on Saturday night,
The parliament has been expanded to 35 after being reduced to 25 in 2021.
Increasing the number of members from five to seven lowers the quota for election from 16.7 per cent to 12.5 per cent.
This lower quota could lead to a bigger cross bench, giving smaller parties such as the Jacqui Lambie Network, a shot at holding the balance of power,
Voters have to mark their ballot cards 1 to 7.
Registered parties and groups are shown in ballot paper order, with ungrouped candidates appearing in the last column.
Candidates are listed in alphabetical order within each column, but the names in each column on the ballot paper are rotated and may not appear in that order.
Premier Jeremy Rockliff is expected to comfortably win a seat in the northwestern electorate of Braddon.
Likewise, Labor leader Rebecca White will win in Lyons, one of the Hobart based seats.
Former Liberal senator and minister Eric Abetz is standing for the party in Franklin. He’s expected to win a seat.
According to the Tasmanian Electoral Commission, almost 90,000 Tasmanians have voted early, either at a pre-poll centre, by postal vote or by phone.
The state’s 255 polling booths are open between 8am and 6pm on Saturday.
Counting starts at 6pm with the first results expected around 6.45pm, the commission said.
“It is expected that counting will take longer for this election,” it said.
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“This is due to an increase in the number of candidates and the number of columns on ballot papers, as well as the new requirement for every ballot paper to have at least seven preferences marked, compared to five in 2021.”
Counting will stop at 11pm on Saturday.
More to come
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2024-03-22 20:40:31Z
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