Vali Nasr:
No, I mean, if the United States really wants the current state of conflict to end, it has to end the Gaza war.
The only time that the — all of these attacks ended was when there was an eight-day cease-fire that was brokered at that time by the United States. The underlying cause of the current escalation is the war. And the idea that, if you hit Iranians hard or you hit Hezbollah hard, somehow, they will back away and let basically the current war in Gaza go as planned could be a massive miscalculation.
I mean, these countries have their own interest in this war, both opportunities and fears. And, yes, they don't want a larger war, but they're not going to step back just because the United States is hitting them in order for the Gaza war to be conducted as is desired by Israel.
And if we miscalculate, thinking that the Iranians will slink into their hole and don't respond, we may be surprised. I don't think the evidence shows that, in the past, that, when we have hit them hard, they have backed away. That is a convenient reading to say that.
As I said, when we killed General Soleimani, it did not actually end up with a de-escalation immediately. Iranians hit back. It was President Trump at that point who decided not to retaliate against a very provocative retaliation by Iran.
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