Catastrophic weather has created 'perfect storm'. But there is hope on the horizon - 9News

The last 12 months will be remembered, in part, for the near-relentless flooding and rain, which a finance expert has warned makes a "perfect storm" for insurance pain.

Steve Mickenbecker, insurance expert at financial comparison site Canstar, said insurance premiums rose drastically from September 2021 to August 2022.

He predicts further increases next year and has flagged the areas most at risk.

Forbes before the flooding hit. / Forbes after the flooding hit on October 18. (Nearmap)

Mickenbecker said premiums went up by 6.6 per cent nationally.

"But you look at Queensland up 11 per cent and Northern Territory 16.7 per cent and it's very clear this is about floods and big storms," he told 9news.com.au.

"This period proceeded some of the more recent flooding.

"You think about all those floods in western and northern NSW - the western region flooding was a bit out of the blue and a bit unexpected - so there will have to be some more increases surely."

Premiums based on quotes obtained for Canstar's 2021 and 2022 Home and Contents Insurance Awards and Star Ratings (September 2021, August 2022). (Canstar)

"The floods, storms, potentially bushfires; they influence the number of claims insurers are likely to have," he said.

"But the other side of it is building costs will affect how much it would cost the insurer to settle the claim, and they've gone up as well.

"More claims and more expensive claims are why premiums have gone up.

"It is the perfect storm."

Mickenbecker said it's too early to forecast how much insurance premiums will rise but he did flag some of the areas most at risk.

Both western Sydney and northern Victoria make his list.

SES workers check the 'great wall of sandbags', hastily erected to protect homes in Echuca West from flooding. (Erin Jonasson.)

But residents living on the "wrong" side of the levee said they feel forgotten about as their properties became flooded. (A Current Affair)

"Unfortunately I think they'll see some rises, because the floods were so widespread," he said.

"They did (already) go up but not by as much as the north of the country, NSW went up by 4.1 per cent, and Victoria by 2.8 per cent.

"Having had the floods they had, I expect they will see a much more significant premium increase."

Sydney skies darkened, a warning of the sudden storm to come

The NSW and southeast Queensland floods of February and March 2022 alone accounted for $5.65 billion worth of claims.

From the 237,000 claims counted, around 68.7 per cent were closed.

The forecasted rise in premiums comes as a weather expert predicts a dramatic shift in Australia's climate.

So, what will the weather hold next year?

Weather records tumbled as Australia was hit with its third consecutive La Niña event.

Lisa Alexander, a climate scientist with the University of NSW, told 9news.com.au above average rainfall will likely persist for the first three months of the year, with cooler temperatures felt across the east coast.

The La Nina event which has been driving the heavy rain and wild storms will ease. Experts think this will be in the first few months of 2023. (Nick Moir)

But Alexander does think clear skies are on the horizon, eventually.

"Four years of La Niña, that's not something that has really been seen," she said.

"We're probably not going to get another one in a row, but unfortunately it becomes quite tricky because there is a point at which we can't predict what is going to happen.

"It's not until we're almost at the event we can say it's going to happen."

Clear skies are on the horizon with La Nina expected to ease in the first few months of 2023. (Getty Images/iStockphoto)

Alexander also thinks an El Niño year is unlikely.

The weather event is the warm phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is associated with hot weather and droughts.

"We almost certainly won't flip to one," she said.

"It is possible, but it's unusual to go from a La Niña, straight to an El Niño.

"More likely than not it will be neutral conditions".

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2022-12-27 18:10:20Z
CBMipwFodHRwczovL3d3dy45bmV3cy5jb20uYXUvbmF0aW9uYWwvd2VhdGhlci1uZXdzLWF1c3RyYWxpYS1jYXRhc3Ryb3BoaWMtd2VhdGhlci1jcmVhdGVzLXBlcmZlY3Qtc3Rvcm0tZm9yLWluc3VyYW5jZS1wcmVtaXVtcy10by1yaXNlL2I3YTNiZDg4LTY4MWItNDk0Yy04Nzg4LWViN2NkNjg3ZmRkOdIBAA

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