It was only a fortnight ago that Anthony Albanese was rubbing shoulders with the Chinese leadership, including powerful President Xi Jinping, and being hailed with effusive praise by the country's state-run media.
After years of strained ties, when official communications were all but cut off, the frosty relationship appeared to be thawing.
Less than a week after that historic trip, Albanese was again talking and warmly shaking hands with Xi, this time in San Francisco on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
But only days before their second chat, it turns out Australian navy divers were injured when a Chinese warship used its sonar while they were still in the water nearby.
According to an announcement by Defence Minister Richard Marles, the incident occurred "in international waters inside of Japan's exclusive economic zone" and despite the Chinese ship receiving multiple warnings that the personnel were operating below the surface.
Albanese called the act "dangerous", "unsafe" and "unprofessional".
Overnight, the spokesman for China's Ministry of Defence said Australia had made a "reckless and irresponsible accusation" over the incident.
In Beijing a fortnight ago, in response to a question about whether he thought China would pick up the phone from the US if there was an accident or close call in the South China Sea, Albanese said he was satisfied "positive engagement" between Australia and China was increasing.
But on Monday, the prime minister would not confirm whether he had addressed the incident directly in his talks with Xi in San Francisco, saying only that it had been raised "very clearly through all of the normal channels".
"The consequences of these events are that they do damage to the relationship, and this certainly is an event that does damage and we've made that very clear to China," Mr Albanese told Sky News.
So it does raise the question, was the show of diplomatic warmth in Beijing just that — all for show — and does this incident undo the positive progress that appeared to have been made?
Not necessarily — but it does demonstrate Beijing's priorities.
Defence trumps trade in China's relationship with the West
While free-flowing trade benefits both Australia and China, as both leaders were at pains to highlight, it doesn't negate Beijing's strongly held ambitions in the South China Sea and the region more broadly.
It also goes to show that while there are some common interests, deep and currently unresolvable differences will continue to punctuate China's relationship with the West.
Benjamin Herscovitch from the Australian National University says this naval incident doesn't mean China isn't sincere about its attempts to repair ties with Australia.
"But this relationship repair won't slow the long-term trend towards more mutual suspicion in the security realm," he said.
"It underscores that China won't let improved ties with Australia get in the way of its pursuit of hard-edged military objectives."
Alessio Patalano, a professor of war and strategy in East Asia at King's College London, argues it's time for countries like the US and Australia to be realistic and start separating a positive relationship with China on issues like trade, with its military ambitions.
"You can have a very fruitful and positive meeting with the Chinese, you can talk about climate change and supply chains in a way that is less confrontational than even 18 months ago," he told the ABC.
"But that will not change how [China] behaves militarily in the region, particularly in areas that they have made absolutely clear are part of their core interests, whether it be sovereign or their maritime sphere of influence.
"So do not expect that … that they will change their behaviour when it comes to the Second Thomas Shoal, or insofar as activities around the Taiwan Strait is considered, or the East China Sea, or indeed other parts of the South China Sea within the so-called Nine Dash Line."
The Navy and Air Force of China's People's Liberation Army have been increasing their activity in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea for some time.
And there are regular close calls — in late October, flares were fired in front of a Canadian military helicopter and clashes between Filipino and Chinese vessels have been occurring often in recent months.
Since former US house speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan in August last year, the PLA has increased the number of flights across the median line of the Taiwan Strait and started to fly unmanned aircraft to the far side of the self-governed island.
In early 2022, the ADF accused a Chinese warship of pointing a military-grade laser into an Australian aircraft flying just north of Australia.
As it did at that time, Beijing has refuted Australia's account of events about what happened last week.
"China's troops are always highly disciplined, and always professionally operate in accordance with the international laws and the international conventions," said Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning.
"[We] wish some parties would stop causing trouble [on] China's doorstep, along with China, to maintain [the] trend of improvement of Sino-Australian relationship."
Further messaging came via state-run media, as it often does, with Communist Party mouthpiece The Global Times quoting analysts who questioned the "vague location" provided in the Australian account about where the incident took place.
"Another Chinese military expert who requested anonymity told the Global Times on Sunday that Australia likely intentionally chose not to disclose the exact location because it has a guilty conscience," wrote journalists Liu Xuanzun and Guo Yuandan.
Then again overnight, senior colonel and spokesperson for China's Ministry of Defence Wu Qian said Australia's remarks were "completely at odds with the facts".
"There is no demarcation in the relevant water between China and Japan, there is no such a saying, 'China's military actions are at or enter Japan's exclusive economic zone,"' he said.
"We urge Australia to respect the facts, to stop reckless and irresponsible accusation against China, do more matters which will increase mutual trust, create positive atmosphere for a better development of bilateral relations between two militaries."
What does this mean for the future of the region?
Dr Herscovitch argues the PLA ultimately wants to make it more risky for the militaries of other countries to operate in the region.
"Although it's unclear whether this particular action was authorised at senior levels in the PLA, the number of unsafe incidents is consistent with a concerted effort by Beijing to push other militaries outside the region by elevating the risks for them of dangerous encounters," he told the ABC.
"So, even as Australia-China relations recover, expect ongoing tensions between Beijing and Canberra in the security realm."
While acknowledging this is not an acceptable behaviour given the injuries to the Australian navy divers, Professor Patalano says the intention was likely less about Australia and more about China.
"The Chinese [military] at the moment are instructed to be very assertive when it comes to any type of foreign vessel, particularly vessels that are of the United States or countries or close to the United States," he said.
"This isn't about hurting Australians, it's about making the point about China … about strength, about assertiveness, about 'this is my backyard'."
An accident in the South China Sea — or a strategic misunderstanding — is one of the most likely ways China watchers expect a war between the US and China could break out.
There was particular concern over the possibility of such an accident happening while the Chinese military had completely cut off communication with its American equivalent.
One of the key achievements out of US President Joe Biden's meeting with Xi in California last week was a commitment to restart those military-to-military communications.
And, man to man, Xi and Biden agreed that they would pick up the phone when the other called.
So with no evidence the PLA is going to scale back its military exercises, that phone call might be the one thing that averts disaster if an accident occurs.
Let's hope they pick up the phone, as promised.
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2023-11-20 22:07:39Z
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