Australia's population could top 40 million people by 2071, while Melbourne is still on track to eclipse's Sydney as the country's most populous city.
That's according to the latest projections released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, based on assumptions of fertility, deaths and migration for all of Australia.
As of the end of June 2022, 67 per cent of all Australians lived in capital cities – that is set to increase to 68 per cent by 2032.
And the nation's population in 2022 – 26 million people – is projected to reach between 34.3 million and 45.9 million people by 2071.
So how will your state look in 48 years?
Jump straight to your state:
New South Wales
With a population of 8.1 million people in 2022, New South Wales is on track to remain the most populous state in the country, growing between 0.4 per cent and 1.2 per cent each year, which is slightly higher than the average annual growth rate for Australia.
The ABS projects NSW's population will reach between 9.2 million and 9.6 million by 2032, and between 10.8 million and 13.8 million by 2071.
Sydney's population of just over 5.4 million people will swell to 8.4 million by 2066, but that will not be enough to claim the title of Australia's most populous city.
Victoria
The big performer, Victoria's population of 6.6 million people is set to reach a population of between 9.3 million and 13.8 million by 2071 with an increase of between 0.7 per cent and 1.5 per cent per year, which is higher than New South Wales.
Melbourne, which is set to overtake Sydney as the country's most populous city in the next 10 years, will have a population nearly 1 million more than its NSW counterpart by 2066 – 9.4 million people.
Queensland
The Sunshine State, which currently has 5.3 million people in it, has a slightly higher than average annual growth rate with an increase of 0.5 per cent and 1.2 per cent per year, reaching a population of between 6.8 million and 9.8 million by 2071.
Capital city Brisbane is projected to increase from 49 per cent of the state's population to between 50 and 51 per cent by 2032, and by 2066 its population will hit 4.34 million people.
South Australia
With 1.8 million people currently in South Australia, the population is projected to increase by between zero and 0.8 per cent per year, which is slower than every other state apart from Tasmania.
By 2071 the population is projected to remain between roughly the same it is currently and 2.7 million people, while Adelaide will grow from 1.45 million people to 2.05 million by 2066.
Western Australia
Western Australia could have the widest variation of population increases, with the ABS projecting it will rise between 0.1 per cent and 1.2 per cent, with the state set to reach a population of 2.9 million people – in June 2022 it was 2.7 million – or up to 5.1 million by 2071.
Perth's population is projected to hit 3 million by 2066 but will remain constant or increase from 80 to 81 per cent of the state's total population.
Tasmania
Tasmania has perhaps the most interesting projection, with the number of deaths expected to exceed births for most years between now and 2071. This means its population could increase to between 609,900 and 843,300 by that time, but under the lowest assumptions of birth rates vs deaths and migration its population could also decline to 425,00.
Hobart – the least populous state capital city – is still projected to grow from 257,000 people currently to just over 400,000 by 2066.
NT and ACT
The Northern Territory has a similar story to Tasmania, with its current population of 250,200 projected to increase by up to 1.6 per cent per year or even decrease by 0.1 per cent, which would mean it reaches a population of between 234,000 and 566,200 by 2071, while Darwin's population will hit 201,000 people by 2066.
The Australian Capital Territory's population of 456,900 people is projected to increase by 0.5 per cent and 1.6 per cent by 2071, jumping up to between 578,000 and 994,500 people.
https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiYmh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIzLTExLTIzL2hvdy1tYW55LXBlb3BsZS13aWxsLWJlLWluLXlvdXItc3RhdGUtaW4tNDAteWVhcnMvMTAzMTQ0MzA40gEoaHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAuYWJjLm5ldC5hdS9hcnRpY2xlLzEwMzE0NDMwOA?oc=5
2023-11-23 09:49:09Z
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