A worrying recipe of increased vegetation combined with warm, dry weather has prompted emergency authorities to put large swathes of the country on high alert for bushfires this spring.
Key points:
- A dry, warm spring is forecast for most of Australia
- High bushfire risk has been highlighted for large parts of most states and territories
- Years of heavy rain have boosted the amount of vegetation ready to burn
The Australasian Fire Authorities Council (AFAC) has large parts of a map of eastern and central Australia marked in red in its seasonal outlook released on Wednesday.
It comes as the Bureau of Meteorology tips spring to be warm and dry for much of the country, with a double-whammy of drought-linked climate drivers developing in oceans to the west and east of the country.
After years of high rainfall, it will be the first dry spring to be predicted by the bureau since 2020.
The bureau will release its official outlook for spring next week but its current long range outlook for September to November shows a dry signal over most of the country, apart from the coast of New South Wales, the tip of the Cape Yorke Peninsula, and central and northern WA.
Far south-west WA, far south-east SA and southern Victoria have more than double the chance of rainfall totals for the season falling in the driest 20 per cent of all years since 1981.
Before: This sliding image shows rain predictions across Australia in spring. . After: above average temperatures for the same time period.. .
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Maximum temperatures are also expected to be above average across Australia, according to the outlook.
If it eventuates, it will come off the back of a dry end to winter for south-eastern Australia, especially Victoria and Tasmania.
However, water storage levels remain healthy across the country, according the data from the bureau, with Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Canberra and Darwin all above 90 per cent capacity.
Meanwhile, Brisbane and Adelaide are above 70 per cent, and Perth above 50 per cent.
High bushfire risk
Recent years of rainfall and a wet start to winter mean several parts of the country are now grappling with high amount of vegetation, especially grass.
This, combined with the warm, dry outlook, has put large parts of the country under elevated risk of "significant bushfire" this season, according to AFAC.
A significant bushfire means one of such size, complexity, duration or other impact that it would require resources from outside the region where the fire originates.
Most of Queensland, New South Wales, the Northern Territory and parts of South Australia and Victoria have been highlighted as having this risk, according to the outlook.
In Queensland, the area of highest concern is the eastern half of the state, anywhere south of Innisfail, with "locally intense bushfires that may be destructive" flagged by AFAC.
This is also the case for New South Wales, with central and north-western areas of the state the highest concern for grass fires.
Much of the Northern Territory, which is already in its fire season, also has a high fire risk going into spring, with "minimal fire scar coverage, well-above average fuel loads, above median temperatures and dry, windy conditions predicted".
"Drier than average conditions and frost curing in these areas can mean an early start to the bushfire danger period," the outlook reads.
"In the event of fires and windy weather, these high grass fuel loads can support intense and fast spreading grass fires."
But grass is not the only vegetation risk that has been highlighted by AFAC.
AFAC said high forest fuel loads were evident through parts of New South Wales, in areas that did not burn during the Black Summer bushfires.
It said that was particularly noticeable around the Sydney Basin, parts of the coast and north of the Hunter.
Small pockets of South Australia have also been flagged as having higher than normal fire risk, with weather conditions "rapidly" switching below average rainfall and drying out of soil in many areas of the state.
Victoria's north-west, and the Gippsland region, have also been flagged as having a increased risk of serious bushfire this spring.
Normal risk elsewhere
Heavy rainfall has provided some form of buffer to the fire risk for most other parts of the country, particularly those in the east, with high soil moisture and full catchments keeping the fire risk as "normal".
But for Australia, a normal season doesn't mean no fires.
AFAC chief executive Rob Webb said Australians needed to get prepared for a season that was likely to be more active than recent years.
"Fire is a regular part of the Australian landscape in spring," he said.
"Wherever you live, work or travel, now is the time to plan and prepare."
The outlook also warned a warmer, drier spring could change the situation quickly, and authorities would be watching the situation closely.
AFAC has this year modified its outlook format to no longer highlight areas that have "normal" or "below average" bushfire risk.
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2023-08-23 01:04:14Z
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