FanDuel and DraftKings do not have matching slates on Saturday, so this DFS breakdown features FanDuel’s All Day slate. Within it are multiple doubleheader games: Orioles-White Sox (Game 1) and Rockies-Pirates (Game 2). Neither Brewers-Nationals game is on this slate and each doubleheader game is only seven innings. Rain and cool temperatures are littered throughout the games.
The All Day slate features 14 games and locks at 1:10 p.m. ET.
Pitchers
There is a sizable gap between the $11,000-plus pitchers and the rest of the starting pitchers:
- Julio Urias (L) $11,500, LAD vs SF
- Zack Wheeler (R) $11,200, PHI @ TB
- Yu Darvish (R) $11,000, SD @ HOU
This is the Julio Urias that has been expected since he donned the Dodger blue six years ago. The 24-year old has career-bests in strikeout and walk rates, as well as ERA as a starter. His Expected ERA and Expected Fielder Independent Pitcher are almost matches to his 3.03 ERA. Urias has elevated Barrel and Hard Hit rates but not elevated expected metrics. His .245 BABIP is a concern but he is swinging the pendulum the other way with a superb first strike percentage (76.9%) and 34.2% called and swinging strike rate.
Urias has a challenge against the San Francisco Giants. The surprise in the NL West has the best Home Run-to-Flyball ratio (HR/FB) against left-handed pitching on the road. Urias can neutralize the Giants offense by keeping the ball on the ground. Simple, right? The Giants have a 1.42 Groundball-to-Flyball ratio in the same situation.
Zack Wheeler is a road favorite against the Tampa Bay Rays. He has pitched better than I expected since signing with the Phillies and his peripherals are all under 3.00, led by his 2.38 ERA. It also never hurts to have a career-high fastball velocity. The Rays are the definition of average on offense (96 wRC+ at home against righties). They have a bottom-10 HR/FB and the second-highest strikeout rate at home against right-handed pitching. Despite being on the road, Wheeler is my favorite among the high-price pitchers.
In my house we praise Yu Darvish, now and forever. Darvish continues the downward ERA trend among the trio with a sparkling 1.75 ERA. His .259 BABIP and 88.7 Left On Base Percentage indicate regression and he faces the offense with the lowest strikeout rate at home. The Houston Astros also have one of the lowest walk rates in baseball, meaning Darvish may have lower counting stats to add to his fantasy total.
All three elite options are outside the top 10 pitching options according to the Bales Model.
Values
Zach Davies has allowed one home run in 27 innings pitched this month and gets the pitcher-friendly Wrigley Field against the Cincinnati Reds. Winds are projected to be blowing in and a game time temperature of 55 degrees. The Cubs won 1-0 on Friday in similar conditions. Davies is the top rated pitcher using the Bales Model and is only $6,000.
Dallas Keuchel ($6,500) leads all pitchers with 10 Pro Trends in his doubleheader start against the Baltimore Orioles. Keuchel has also upped his strikeout totals his past two starts after not missing bats. He has 10 Ks in 11 innings since May 17. The White Sox are 1.4 run favorites as of 9:30 a.m. central time.
Nate Eovaldi ($7,500) has a 100% Bargain Rating in his home start against the Miami Marlins. Marlins-Red Sox has the second highest chance for rain behind Braves-Mets. Like Friday night, be ready to swap players.
Fastballs
The Chicago Cubs sport a 102 wRC+ at home against righties and have the elements going against their offense. Luis Castillo ($6,400) has been a minus majority of 2021 but is an excellent pivot as road underdogs in a game tied for the lowest projected run total.
Austin Gomber ($8,900) has one or fewer walks in five straight starts and has a FanDuel points floor of 21 over that time. Despite playing well against southpaws at home, the Pirates have a top 10 Soft Hit rate and bottom 10 HR/FB ratio.
Notable Stack
A little late night offense is the top stack:
- Paul Goldschmidt (R)
- Tommy Edman (S)
- Nolan Arenado (R)
- Dylan Carlson (S)
Total Salary: $11.600
The Cardinals are on a three-game winning streak and have 17 runs over that span. All four hitters are in the Bales Model’s top 10 hitters, with Edman and Carlson atop the rankings. Cardinals-Diamondbacks has a projected run total of 9.5 runs.
Other Hitters
Justin Turner is only $2,900 and is 4-for-9 against the Giants this series. He is also 2-for-3 against Giants starter Logan Webb. Small sample size, but Turner can get on hot streaks and has two home runs in his last four games.
Josh Rojas has a nine-game on-base streak and has reached based five times in 10 plate appearances against the Cardinals in the first two games of their series. He is a top 10 option and is one of the Diamondbacks to roster with the Cardinals stack.
Jesse Winker is 4-for-7 with one home run and two RBI’s against Zach Davies.
Cody Bellinger is expected to start against the Giants tonight. Excited to have one of baseball’s biggest names back on DFS slates.
The Minnesota Twins have an 89 Team Value Rating on FanDuel. The ageless Ervin Santana is starting for the Kansas City Royals. Miguel Sano is only $3,100 and has been the hottest Twins hitter. Andrelton Simmons is the only Twins hitter with “extensive” at-bats against Santana, going 3-for-7. He is only $2,200 and will have low ownership.
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May 29, 2021 at 10:39PM
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Saturday MLB DFS Breakdown: How To Play The All Day Slate (May 29) - Fantasy Labs
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