Grim warning Sydney's coronavirus cases could surge to 3,000 by January unless one unpopular decision is made - here's why the next 24 hours could decide how we spend Christmas
- Sydney reported 30 new cases of coronavirus on Sunday, 28 with confirmed links to northern beaches cluster
- Infectious disease expert Professor Raina MacIntyre said Sydney needs to go into lockdown if cases rise
- She warned about the dangers of Christmas and New Year's, predicting cases could hit 3,000 by January 8
- Prof MacIntyre said NSW needed to improve its digital contact-tracing and efficiency of testing clinics
Sydney's northern beaches coronavirus cluster could surge to 120 cases by Christmas Day and 3,000 by January 8 unless the entire city goes into lockdown until Thursday, a leading infectious disease expert has warned.
Professor Raina MacIntyre from the University of New South Wales said Christmas Day and New Year's Eve could act as 'super-spreader' events if residents are allowed to travel freely across Sydney this week.
The Professor of Global Biosecurity also said it was crucial NSW improved its testing capacity and digital contact-tracing methods if the state wanted to get on top of the beaches cluster before it spread across the state.
New South Wales reported another 30 coronavirus cases on Sunday, with 28 linked to the Avalon RSL and Avalon Bowlo and the other two believed to be connected to the same cluster.
The total number of known cases in NSW has now risen to 70 but health authorities are encouraged by the fact there hasn't been any evidence of massive seeding outside the northern beaches community.
NSW Health sent out two urgent coronavirus health alerts on Sunday, listing 25 new venues exposed to Covid including a string of popular pubs in Manly, a coffee shop in inner-city Double Bay and Cronulla Mall in the south.
Prof Macintyre said Christmas could act as a 'ticking time bomb', explaining half of people carrying the virus will have no symptoms and may not even realise they're infected by the time December 25 rolls around.
'People infected today and tomorrow may travel half-way across Sydney for the family Christmas lunch and maybe to another household for dinner, possibly infecting a minimum of 360 new people,' she wrote for the SMH.
'The 360 people infected on Christmas Day will be at their peak infectiousness on New Year’s Eve, and could infect more than 1000 others. We could be looking at 3000 cases by January 8. You could not plan a disaster more perfectly if you tried.'
A leading infectious diseases expert has warned Sydney could be sent into lockdown if coronavirus cases surge on Monday. This map shows the spread of disease with confirmed cases visiting venues in Cronulla, Riverwood and Homebush
Professor Raina MacIntyre from UNSW said Christmas and New Year's Eve (tourists from last year's celebrations) could act as 'super-spreader' events if the northern beaches cluster is not contained quickly
Professor MacIntyre (left) predicted New South Wales could see more than 3000 cases by January 8 without radical decisions, including a full lockdown of Greater Sydney (right, testing clinic) from Monday to Thursday
Prof MacIntyre said the northern beaches cluster could not have come at a worse time, with two 'super-spreading' events just around the corner.
'The combination of silent infections, exponential growth and the calamitous timing of New Year’s Eve being within one incubation period of Christmas Day is a tinder-box,' she wrote.
'I think the problem is there is very little time left, these two events are going to happen, they are fixed dates,' she told news.com.au.
If numbers increase again on Monday, Prof MacIntyre suggested a short, sharp lockdown until Thursday across Greater Sydney to prevent a 'worst case scenario'.
'If we see 100 cases on Thursday we are going to have to cancel Christmas. We may also be forced to abandon all plans for New Year's Eve if we take a softly, softly approach,' she said.
Prof MacIntyre said the lockdown on the northern beaches 'may or may not work' as growing clusters in the rest of Sydney may not be apparent for up to another two weeks.
Despite the grim outlook, Prof MacIntyre said it's still possible to prevent a Victorian-style second wave in the Harbour City if two steps are taken to improve the state's covid response.
'Firstly, testing capacity must be increased – reports of people waiting in line for up to six hours means many may leave without testing,' she said.
'Secondly, we need to rapidly improve digital contact-tracing methods so that if the epidemic gets too large to track manually, we will not fall behind, as they did in Melbourne.'
Some northern beaches residents reported waiting all day in drive-through COVID-19 testing clinics at St Ives and Manly.
Prof MacIntyre also said making face masks mandatory across Sydney will make a difference, particularly as people flood malls to do Christmas shopping.
Prof MacIntyre said by Christmas Day, daily cases could balloon to 120, with those people then going on to potentially infect 300 or 400 others through gatherings
NSW Health on Sunday evening announced a list of new venues in Sydney's northern beaches, lower north shore, southern and eastern suburbs visited by confirmed COVID-19 cases.
Patrons who visited Manly Wharf Bar on Saturday December 12 between 2:45pm and 3:15pm should get tested immediately and isolate until they receive a negative result.
NSW Health also advised anyone who was at the Steyne Hotel on the same day between 3pm and 3:30pm to get tested and isolate at home.
Shoppers who attended Woolworths at Riverwood Plaza in Sydney's south on Wednesday December 9 between 3pm 3:35pm should get tested immediately and isolate.
Among the other new venues now on a public health alert is Cronulla Mall, Old Manly Boat Shed, BoThai restaurant in Crows Nest and Mona Vale Golf Club.
Health authorities are also investigating a theory that positive coronavirus cases may have visited Anytime Fitness in Avalon as far back as November 23 - weeks before an elderly couple tested positive on December 16.
Hundreds of people who visited the gym on December 6, 7, 8, 11 and 12 have already been forced into 14-day self-isolation over the Christmas period.
A second health alert sent out late on Sunday night listed seven more venues exposed to coronavirus, including Anytime Fitness in Mona Vale, G Fitness in Freshwater, 4 Pines Newport and Twenty-One Espresso in Double Bay.
Almost all coronavirus cases identified in NSW have been linked to two events in Avalon on the Northern Beaches last week thanks to the state's contact tracing system.
As a result, Premier Gladys Berejiklian has imposed some restrictions on the whole of Greater Sydney but only the northern beaches has been locked down.
With another 30 cases recorded on Sunday, Prof MacIntyre believes a quick, heavy lockdown of all of Sydney is the only viable option to evade disaster
Chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant has urged everyone across NSW to get tested as soon as they notice the mildest symptoms. Pictured: Testing at Bondi Beach on Sunday
The rapid contact tracing stands in stark contrast to the early days of Melbourne's outbreak in June and July where cases were recorded around the city with little or no information released about how the patients may have caught the virus.
Health Minister Brad Hazzard has described the state's contact tracing system as 'diamond standard' and thanked officials for their hard work.
He said New South Wales does not require a state-wide lockdown like Victoria's because the system gives politicians enough confidence to take a 'risk-balanced' approach.
'Everything that has occurred in New South Wales has been a risk balance and we will continue with that,' he said.
'You can safely say that New South Wales leads the country in keeping jobs and keeping the economy moving and keeping people safe.
'I am confident that we have diamond level health tracers and I think the work that we have done over that period has been a very balanced way of approaching this.'
Minister Hazzard said he expected outbreaks to happen and that immediately shutting the economy down was not a viable option.
'We are in a worldwide pandemic and every day for the last few weeks there have been 3,000 people die in America, many thousands more dying in other countries across the world and until we get a vaccine, we do not have a solution to the problem.
'We can manage the problem... risk management is what we are doing.'
Masks have been mandatory when leaving home in Victoria since the state suffered a deadly second wave with a four-month lockdown over winter.
Asked why she has not recommended mandatory mask-wearing in NSW, chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant stressed the importance of individual responsibility.
'We all have a part to play in how we respond to this and often the actions we adopt require people to co-operate and I must just express my gratitude to the population of New South Wales,' she said.
'Ultimately it is also in the hands of the individuals within New South Wales.'
Federal chief health officer Professor Paul Kelly also said forcing people to wear masks was not necessary.
He noted the cluster was 'quite localised' in the northern section of the northern beaches but he said 'we won't know for another week' whether the outbreak has been confined to that area.
Premier Berejiklian urged residents to wear masks on public transport and in spaces where social distancing is not possible such as shops and supermarkets. Pictured: Queues for testing at Bondi
As the northern beaches cluster swelled to 68, Premier Berejiklian tightened restrictions for Greater Sydney.
From 11.59pm on Sunday until 11.59pm on Wednesday all Greater Sydney residents will be allowed a maximum of 10 people in their homes.
There are also new restrictions for venues including a 300 person cap, a one person per four square metre rule and a ban on singing and dancing.
Health Minister Brad Hazzard said singing and dancing were 'one of the most dangerous exercises you can do'.
Elsewhere on Sunday, thousands of Sydneysiders flooded airport terminals in a desperate bid to leave the Harbour City before harsh new border restrictions come into play.
Check-in terminals were packed with tourists, with most wearing face masks, as the growing outbreak threatens to ruin holiday plans for families across the country.
Holidaymakers rushed to Sydney Airport to flee the Harbour City on Sunday as the northern beaches coronavirus cluster continues to grow
Most travellers wore face masks in the terminal, with the growing outbreak threatening Christmas plans for families across the nation
Western Australia has banned all NSW residents from visiting from midnight on Sunday, while South Australia, ACT, the NT and Tasmania have similar rules requiring Sydneysiders to quarantine for 14 days.
Victorians are allowed to return home without mandatory hotel quarantine until 11.59pm on Monday, but will be required to self-isolate.
Queensland's premier Annastacia Palaszczuk announced similar restrictions on Sunday afternoon, banning those from Greater Sydney from her state from 1am on Monday - when the city becomes an official hot spot.
For Queenslanders returning home from Greater Sydney, they have until 1am on Tuesday to cross the border and will have to take a test and self-isolate if they arrive on Monday.
South Australia is requiring anyone arriving from Greater Sydney after 11.59pm on Sunday to self-quarantine for 14 days.
Anyone who has entered on Friday, Saturday or Sunday will be asked to get tested but does not have to self-isolate for two weeks. Both states have already banned Northern Beaches residents.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMib2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmRhaWx5bWFpbC5jby51ay9uZXdzL2FydGljbGUtOTA3MjQ4MS9TeWRuZXlzLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWNhc2VzLWhpdC0zLTAwMC1kaXNlYXNlLWV4cGVydC1jbGFpbXMuaHRtbNIBc2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmRhaWx5bWFpbC5jby51ay9uZXdzL2FydGljbGUtOTA3MjQ4MS9hbXAvU3lkbmV5cy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1jYXNlcy1oaXQtMy0wMDAtZGlzZWFzZS1leHBlcnQtY2xhaW1zLmh0bWw?oc=5
2020-12-20 15:20:00Z
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