The federal opposition likes to deride Scott Morrison as the Prime Minister for New South Wales.
But with a new leader in that state it's increasing clear that it's not the opposition causing him headaches but a man fast earning a reputation as the Premier of Australia, Dominic Perrottet.
Perrottet's decision to throw open the international border was done in a way that left Morrison on the political back foot and his office scrambling to catch up.
It brings with it a fundamental change to Australia's response to the deadly global pandemic.
And in doing so, the NSW Premier managed to sideline a Prime Minister who's spent the last 18 months eager to announce any major change to Australia's handling of COVID-19.
Just two weeks earlier, a breathless Morrison, himself locked in quarantine after returning from the United States, called a press conference so he could rush out and announce the international border would reopen and vaccinated Australians would be able to quarantine at home.
It was hastily arranged so he could front the cameras before Gladys Berejiklian announced she was resigning as NSW Premier.
There was no set date on when the borders would open, rather it would be based on when states hit 80 per cent double vaccination thresholds.
But now there is a date — November 1. From that day, people in NSW will be able to travel as freely to Newcastle, on the north coast, as they can to Newcastle in the UK.
Whether or not they can travel to other states remains to be seen.
Feds able to shape who can arrive in NSW
Perrottet's decision doesn't completely strip the federal government of its power.
For someone to enter Australia, they must have the right — be it citizenship, residency or a visa — all of which are controlled by the feds.
Morrison was keen to reinforce this when he fronted the cameras hours after Perrottet, insisting it would be Australian citizens, residents and their immediate family members who he will let in.
Tourists, students and skilled workers will have to wait, he said.
"We are not opening up to everyone coming back to Australia at the moment. I want to be clear about that," Morrison said.
"It is for the Commonwealth and federal government to decide when the border opens and shuts at an international level and we will do that."
Quarantine is a federal power but its implementation is governed by the states, so, for now at least, it appears NSW has the ability to allow fully vaccinated people to move freely in its state as soon as they get off planes from overseas.
That is provided they have passed the necessary COVID-19 testing.
But their ability to move interstate will ultimately be a matter for the rest of the nation's state and territory leaders.
It'll likely flare the complaints that our federation is no more and that the Prime Minister has little power to force them to apply nationally-consistent rules.
National consequences for NSW decisions
A change of premier in NSW has brought significant pandemic policy shifts.
Some members of the state's crisis cabinet — which has since been renamed the COVID and Economic Recovery Committee — believed the former premier was too beholden to the chief health officer Dr Kerry Chant.
The new Premier has been bullish about setting a different agenda and one that will have national consequences.
In just 20 days, fully vaccinated people in Greater Sydney and large swathes of regional NSW will have gone from lockdown to living with almost no restrictions.
Sources tell the ABC that Perrottet's relationship with Chant is strong, but the state's top health official has rarely been seen since he came to power.
Once upon a time, politicians across the country spoke about "the health advice" and how it guided policy.
But increasingly in NSW, health bureaucrats are distancing themselves from the decision making of the state's political leaders.
Those shaping the new-look NSW government would argue it's a question of risk.
They contend that a fully vaccinated traveller who has passed multiple COVID-19 tests poses little risk to a community where there are high levels of vaccination — places like NSW, the ACT and Victoria, which are all on track to have more than 90 per cent of their populations fully vaccinated within weeks.
Coming out of the 'COVID cave'
If Scott Morrison had his way, all leaders across the country would have adopted and fully implemented the national plan National Cabinet signed off on back in July.
The elephant in the room at the time was whether the state and territory leaders would actually follow it.
The Prime Minister might demand that WA and Queensland come out of their COVID "caves".
But that fails to appreciate how safe and warm it must feel in that WA cave, where residents have largely lived a life unrecognisable to those in lockdown across the east coast.
Time and time again, state and territory leaders have done what they thought was in their jurisdiction's best interest and voters have rewarded them.
It's why within hours you could have the NSW Premier throwing open the international border as his Tasmanian counterpart put parts of his state into lockdown.
The formation of the National Cabinet elevated premiers and chief ministers to the same level as the Prime Minister back in early 2020.
Morrison gave them power and prominence that some in his party argue has come back to haunt him in 2021.
The leaders of NSW and Victoria forced a reluctant Prime Minister to shut down the nation in March 2020 as the pandemic took hold.
A year and a half later, the leaders of those same states might be about to drag the Prime Minister and Australia out of its COVID cave, ready or not.
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2021-10-15 05:08:53Z
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