Victoria records 16th day of no new COVID-19 cases, no mystery cases - The Age

Victoria has recorded its first fortnight without mystery cases since the first case with unknown local transmission was found at the beginning of the pandemic in March.

The state has also recorded its 16th day in a row of no new coronavirus cases and no further deaths.

The latest "double doughnut day" came after 8323 tests were processed in the previous 24 hours.

Victoria has recorded its 16th-straight day of zeros.Credit:Joe Armao

There are still three active cases of coronavirus in the state, but there are now zero infections that can't be traced to a known cluster between October 30 to November 12.

The graph above shows the mystery cases tally has slowly been driven down, while the one below shows how mystery cases have tracked since early March.

The state’s first mystery case was announced by the Department of Health and Human Services on March 13, back when there were only 34 cases in total confirmed in Victoria.

Since then there have been 3762 mystery cases in the state, which make up 18.5 per cent of the 20,345 COVID-19 cases that have been recorded statewide since the start of the pandemic.

During the first wave, there was a peak of 79 mystery cases confirmed in the two weeks leading up to April 10 (that’s about six per day).

But there were far more mystery cases during the state’s deadly second wave. The first wave’s record of 79 mystery cases in a fortnight was beaten on June 30, two days before 10 postcodes were plunged back into lockdown because of a flurry of cases that could not be traced to known sources.

At the height of the second wave there were 1181 mystery cases recorded in the two weeks leading up to August 11 (about 84 per day). After that, case numbers - and mystery cases as well - started to come down.

Health authorities have long maintained that mystery cases are the most concerning infections because they suggest the virus is circulating within the community, and mean that there are people out there with COVID-19 who were never picked up by testing.

When the state’s roadmap for reopening was announced in early September, mystery cases took on extra significance because some of the targets for easing restrictions were tied to these cases being driven below a certain threshold.

Melbourne’s step three reopening target was to record five or fewer mystery cases in the two weeks leading up to October 26. This was quite an ask given that the state had met this target one day after the first wave - the record was five in the two weeks to May 3.

But the city did eventually get there, on October 28 - the same day cafes and shops reopened - the mystery cases tally fell to a record low of four. It dipped to two on October 30, fell to one on November 10 and hit zero on Sunday morning.

It’s possible the total number of mystery cases will be revised down further once health authorities go back and analyse previous cases.

On Friday afternoon the total mystery cases tally was 4277, but on Saturday it was revised down to 3762.

Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng said the drop was because a new algorithm was able to form connections between previously unliked cases.

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2020-11-14 21:36:00Z
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