Victoria could be on 'tipping point' of second wave, epidemiologists warn - The Age

One of the 13 new cases reported on Friday remains under investigation, four are from a cluster linked to the Stamford Plaza Hotel and one is a returned traveller in hotel quarantine. However, Victoria's total tally of cases only increased by 12 after a previous diagnosis was reclassified.

Deputy Chief Health Officer Annaliese van Diemen said the next stage in relaxing restrictions could be in jeopardy due to community transmission.

But health officials appear to be at odds with the government, with Health Minister Jenny Mikakos insisting the rise in cases would only affect future easing of restrictions, not those already planned for June 22.

Gyms, cinemas, indoor sports centres and concert venues are due to reopen on Monday, while cafes, restaurants and pubs will increase capacity from 20 people to 50.

On Friday morning, senior Andrews government minister Jacinta Allan reiterated that plans to wind back restrictions on Monday had not changed, but stopped short of guaranteeing the government would not shift its position over the weekend.

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"We're monitoring the data on an hourly basis ... we've already announced to the Victorian community what the next stage of restrictions will look like, but we are carefully monitoring that," Ms Allan said.

Professor James McCaw, from the University of Melbourne, said it was fair to ask whether Victoria should be loosening the rules on June 22.

"The situation in Victoria is hard to understand right now. We don't know if this is the earliest phase of more widespread transmission, or if this is just a statistical fluctuation – a blip," Professor McCaw said on Friday.

Cases reported from the last few days would have been transmitted one to two weeks ago, he said.

"So we don't know what's happening right now, and that could be more cases, or it could be fewer, and we don't know and we won't know for another week or two."

If cases continue to rise on the weekend and those cases are not connected to a single cluster, then "that would feel to me strongly suggestive of increasing community-level transmission", he said.

"Because prevalence is so low in Victoria, we would have time to respond, but it would warrant a response. If left unchecked, it could result in heading towards a situation which would be risky."

Catherine Bennett, chair of epidemiology at Deakin University, said community transmission cases caught by routine testing showed "the virus is still circulating".

"I think it's potentially a tipping point if you like, the fact that we're finding more cases through routine testing," Professor Bennett said.

"It's a ticking time bomb, if you like, while we've still got the virus circulating."

But Professor Bennett said case numbers were still low compared to the rest of the world, and Victoria had been aggressively testing the community.

"The numbers are still low, but we are right to worry."

Victoria also recorded 21 new cases on Wednesday, although 15 were returned travellers in hotel quarantine, nine new cases on Tuesday and 12 on Monday.

Dr van Diemen said authorities would not be taking any chances.

"Monday is not that far away. The plan is to continue to ease those restrictions on Monday, but a lot can happen in five days," she said on Thursday.

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https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMihwFodHRwczovL3d3dy50aGVhZ2UuY29tLmF1L25hdGlvbmFsL3ZpY3RvcmlhL3ZpY3RvcmlhLWNvdWxkLWJlLW9uLXRpcHBpbmctcG9pbnQtb2Ytc2Vjb25kLXdhdmUtZXBpZGVtaW9sb2dpc3RzLXdhcm4tMjAyMDA2MTktcDU1NDY1Lmh0bWzSAYcBaHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAudGhlYWdlLmNvbS5hdS9uYXRpb25hbC92aWN0b3JpYS92aWN0b3JpYS1jb3VsZC1iZS1vbi10aXBwaW5nLXBvaW50LW9mLXNlY29uZC13YXZlLWVwaWRlbWlvbG9naXN0cy13YXJuLTIwMjAwNjE5LXA1NTQ2NS5odG1s?oc=5

2020-06-19 02:52:06Z
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