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Annastacia Palaszczuk's election victory saw Queensland voters embrace her COVID message - ABC News

In an election victory driven by her management of COVID-19, the dire second wave in Victoria likely helped Annastacia Palaszczuk.

Defending her tough border policy and her message about keeping Queenslanders safe, she had a real life example to illustrate what happens when the virus gets away.

Her win reinforced the accepted wisdom that this crisis favours incumbents — provided people think they are doing the right thing.

The Queensland outcome might at one level be galling for the Federal Government — which has been sniping at Palaszczuk's border policy for months — but at another it is also reassuring for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has so far managed the pandemic response well.

That said, Morrison has a rockier road to navigate to his election.

The federal poll is around 18 months away, and (assuming the virus now stays under control) the challenge for him is economic, which will be complicated as he juggles withdrawing the current massive fiscal support without any disaster.

A man in a suit raises his right hand as he speaks into two microphones.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has handled the coronavirus pandemic well but the challenge ahead is economic.(ABC News: Tamara Penniket)

A remarkable achievement

While some details of the Queensland result are yet to be finalised, Palaszczuk is set for an increased majority, with Labor securing a swing towards it. For a Government seeking a third term, and one which had been — pre-COVID — under criticism for its performance, this is a remarkable achievement.

Despite some pre-election speculation, and the plight of the tourist industry, Labor's seats in the north of the state did not collapse.

The difficulties of the Queensland economy and its high unemployment did not translate into electoral damage for the Government.

No Morrison "miracle"

And nearly a week's campaigning by the Prime Minister produced not the slightest sign of a Morrison "miracle" for the Liberal National Party. On the other side, the absence of Anthony Albanese could have been a bonus for Labor.

Annastacia Palaszczuk smiles at Steven Miles as he is talking
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk held daily press conferences with Health Minister and Deputy Premier Steven Miles.(ABC News: Tim Swanston)

The Palaszczuk Government was helped by its opposition, with recent fighting between the LNP organisation and the parliamentary party.

On the main issue of this COVID election, LNP leader Deb Frecklington could only say she too would follow the health advice. She may not have not been believed, given the attacks on the closed border coming from the conservative side.

What happened to One Nation?

Apart from the result, the big story of Saturday was the collapse of the One Nation vote. What was left of that vote favoured Labor via preferences, probably reflecting older voters' COVID fears.

Pauline Hanson was low profile during the election; whether she can gear up her party when the federal contest comes remains to be seen. It's clear how "all about Pauline" is Pauline Hanson's One Nation — if she's not going flat out, there's nothing much there.

Pauline Hanson, wearing a red jacket with a silver brooch, looks past a camera in the foreground.
One Nation's Queensland vote collapsed without Pauline Hanson going "flat out" on the hustings.(ABC News: Matt Roberts)

Just as the Victorian wave played into Palaszczuk's storyline, so did the federal pressure on the Premier.

The benefit was in net terms — she lost skin when some hardline decisions hurt interstate families who needed health care or who wanted to visit sick relatives or to attend funerals.

What is the impact on federal Labor?

Anthony Albanese stands before two flags
Labor's success in Queensland is unlikely to influence federal support for Labor leader Anthony Albanese.(AAP: Joel Carrett)

Apart from the warm glow of a fraternal success, the Queensland result doesn't bring a lot that's positive for federal Labor.

For it, the message about incumbency is not encouraging.

The ALP also knows Queenslanders are quite comfortable with federal and state governments being of different stripes. The voters can judge who's who, and just because they trust Palaszczuk Labor doesn't mean they are more likely to embrace Albanese Labor.

Morrison goes down well in Queensland when he's campaigning for his own Government.

Federal Labor must work out its detailed positions on key policies — climate, energy and resources — and more effectively sell its leader, before its fortunes can improve in that state.

Both will be difficult. Attempts to paper over the internal differences on climate and energy won't cut it, but forging genuine agreement is a struggle.

Albanese is up against it when the times are suiting Morrison.

Post-Saturday's result, the Premier has indicated Queensland's border ban on people from greater Sydney and Victoria won't be reviewed for another month. That would still leave time for Christmas reunions, but it could be a tight-run thing.

Health Minister Greg Hunt said on Sunday: "We're now, I think, in a position where we would like to see New South Wales and Queensland be able as soon as possible to have free movement between the jurisdictions. And once everybody is comfortable that Victoria does have its contact tracing to gold standard levels, then I think we'll see a single national bubble in due course."

With Victoria on Sunday recording zero new cases and community transmission in Australia virtually stamped out, Australia is at this moment in an extraordinarily good place on the health front.

But with COVID rampaging again in Britain and many other countries, and the memory of the Victorian experience fresh, there can be no complacency.

Michelle Grattan is a professorial fellow at the University of Canberra and chief political correspondent at The Conversation, where this article first appeared.

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2020-11-01 21:17:00Z
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