Controlling COVID-19 clusters, increased testing in the community and getting on top of contact tracing are the keys to pushing Victoria's coronavirus cases down to meet the threshold for further easing, health officials say.
Key points:
- Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews said the full suite of changes will not go ahead as promised
- Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said controlling clusters and cutting off chains of transmission will drive numbers down
- Epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws advocates asymptomatic testing in the community
Premier Daniel Andrews said the number of new coronavirus cases in Victoria is simply not falling fast enough for all the restrictions to be eased as promised on October 19.
Mr Andrews said "significant announcements" would still be made but, based on the 14-day rolling daily average, which is now sitting at 9.5, it is not likely to be low enough to do all the things foreshadowed.
"We will do some of them and they will be significant," Mr Andrews said.
"But I don't believe at this stage it will be the full suite of changes that we had forecast."
He said the restrictions might be eased in a number of steps rather than one big step.
To move to the next step, Victoria must have a 14-day rolling average of below five new cases a day by October 19 and two-week mystery case total below five.
That is now in doubt.
Numbers still not low enough
The move to the third step was originally scheduled for October 26 but when case numbers started to fall, Mr Andrews said it could be as soon as October 19.
Under the plan outlined in the roadmap, there would be no restrictions on reasons to leave home and no limits on the number of people from one household allowed to leave for shopping.
Up to 10 people would be allowed to gather outside, some retail would be allowed to open, and cafes and bars could reopen mainly for outdoor dining.
Mary-Louise McLaws, an epidemiologist and a member of the World Health Organisations Experts Advisory Panel on COVID-19, said there is a chance Melbourne will hit the target by the original date, October 26.
"I think Victoria will manage to get the target a week after the 19th," she said.
"There are concerns given testing numbers have gone down."
On Saturday, 14 new cases were recorded and for the third day in a row, there were no new deaths.
Melbourne's 14-day average of daily cases has increased slightly to 9.5, up from 9.4 yesterday. Regional Victoria's average remains at 0.4.
Too risky to open up with 10 cases per day
Mr Andrews said all the risks in the original modelling have been reconfirmed and it would be a "very big gamble" to open up now.
"There's still a very significant risk if we were to open today at these numbers then we run a very significant risk that we can't contain this," he said.
But he said the good news is that as the weeks unfold, the risk comes down.
"You get a very significant return for having been as stubborn as this virus is," he said.
He said that would mean being able to open up and stay open.
Controlling clusters at Chadstone, Kilmore and Box Hill
Getting on top of all of the active clusters to cut off all of the chains of transmission is the key, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton said.
There are three main clusters linked to Chadstone Shopping Centre, a cafe in Kilmore and a new outbreak at Box Hill Hospital.
There are 10 cases in the Box Hill outbreak, including three staff, one patient and six household contacts.
There are six more cases in Kilmore.
Professor Sutton said Victoria was on the "tail end" of the Chadstone cluster, with no new cases identified today.
"We saw in the first wave we can cut it right off at the tail if we can get to every case."
How to drive the numbers even lower
Professor McLaws applauded the Victorian Government's "conservative approach".
"You have to give the Victorian Government credit for not bowing to pressure to lift sanctions," she said.
"I would go further now and have them start thinking about other causes, other strategies."
Testing levels have fallen dramatically from the highest levels in July, she said.
Professor McLaws said testing clinics should be open 24/7 in the next week to make a final push to identify all of the remaining cases in the community.
Close contacts who test negative should be made to isolate for seven days, she said, because up to 20 per cent of cases are asymptomatic.
She is advocating for asymptomatic testing which is taken "out to the community" and residents should be doorknocked and asked to participate.
Workplace testing in high-risk sectors should be expanded further, Professor McLaws said.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiaWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTEwLTEwL3ZpY3Rvcmlhcy1jb3JvbmF2aXJ1cy1udW1iZXJzLWFyZS1ub3QtZmFsbGluZy1mYXN0LWVub3VnaC8xMjc1MTE4MNIBJ2h0dHBzOi8vYW1wLmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvYXJ0aWNsZS8xMjc1MTE4MA?oc=5
2020-10-10 05:35:00Z
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