It has been an unusual by-election in Eden-Monaro, but it all draws to a close tonight.
The by-election, triggered by the resignation of long-serving Labor MP Mike Kelly, is the first significant federal political campaign run since the coronavirus pandemic began.
The stakes are relatively low politically — the result will not change the balance of the House of Representatives.
But there is a bit at stake symbolically. No government has taken a seat off its opposition in roughly a century, so a victory for one of the Coalition candidates would be quite a feat.
And it remains a live possibility. Few pundits are willing to predict the outcome in what was once a reliable, bellwether seat.
Many will be keeping a close eye on tomorrow's result. Here's everything you need to know about the contest.
Why is this by-election happening again?
Mike Kelly announced his resignation back in late April for health reasons, triggering the by-election.
Mr Kelly was first elected in 2007, and held the seat for 10 of the past 13 years.
He lost the seat in 2013 to the Liberals' Peter Hendy, but won it back in 2016.
Mr Kelly is widely considered a popular local member. It is often suggested Mr Kelly holds a significant personal vote, worth as much as two or three per cent of Labor's primary vote in the seat.
Replicating that personal support will be a challenge for whoever takes the seat tomorrow.
Where is Eden-Monaro?
Eden-Monaro is large electorate in southern New South Wales.
It stretches from the South Coast, right up to the peak of Mt Kosciuszko and beyond, and wraps right around the ACT in the north-west.
Here's a fun fact — it is almost exactly the same size as Switzerland, but with far better beaches.
Tourism, agriculture and forestry are key industries, but so is the public service.
The largest centre of voters is in Queanbeyan, right on the ACT border. Queanbeyan is so close to Canberra, it's effectively a suburb, and the public service is a major employer — providing a very different shape to much of the rest of the electorate.
What's different about this by-election?
There are a few things that make this by-election a bit unusual.
The biggest factor is the context — this is the first federal ballot since the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Federal Government's response to the crisis has dominated much of the by-election conversation.
But it has been a pretty big year for Eden-Monaro, completely separate to the pandemic.
It was one of the hardest-hit regions in the country during summer's bushfires, and much of the South Coast in particular is still concentrated on rebuilding lost homes and properties.
Cobargo, where Prime Minister Scott Morrison received a famously unfriendly welcome during the fires, sits within the seat.
And the mechanics of campaigning have been thrown out by social distancing requirements.
There have been no traditional town-hall meetings or debates, and no campaign launches. Campaigning over the phone, over social media and even through video conference calls, have taken on a new prominence for the candidates.
And there have been zero handshakes, or babies kissed.
Isn't it a 'bellwether' seat? And what does that mean, anyway?
Eden-Monaro voted with the party who won government for 17 consecutive elections.
That means whichever way Eden-Monaro voted, so went the nation.
It took current MP Mike Kelly to break the streak in 2016, when he won the seat back for Labor while the Coalition won the election.
He achieved the same feat again in 2019, but it remains very marginal.
It is currently held by Labor by just 0.9 per cent, and is very likely to be won tomorrow on preferences.
Who is running in Eden-Monaro? And what is a 'three-cornered contest'?
All three major parties are running in Eden-Monaro, in what is often referred to as a "three-cornered contest".
Labor, the Liberals and the Nationals are all fielding a candidate. That is unusual, because Liberal and National candidates rarely run against one another.
Former Bega mayor Kristy McBain is running for Labor, while South Coast farmer Fiona Kotvojs is running for the Liberals, and Queanbeyan councillor Trevor Hicks is running for the Nationals.
The seat has traditionally only been held by Labor or the Liberals.
There is a large field overall, with 14 candidates are running for the seat in total. The Greens and Shooters Fishers and Farmers are also fielding candidates.
I live in Eden-Monaro. Where can I vote, and when do I have to do it?
If you are registered to vote in Eden-Monaro, there is about a 50 per cent chance you have already voted.
Half of all votes were expected to cast before today, either through pre-poll or postal votes.
The number of postal votes in particular has risen due to COVID-19, and there will be some noticeable changes for those voting in person on Saturday, too.
Roughly 60 booths will be in place around the electorate for in-person voting today, with locations available on the AEC website.
Numbers in polling places will be managed to maintain social distancing, but the large proportion of early votes will help reduce demand.
Pencils will be single-use (or you can bring your own), and hand sanitiser will be available at all booths.
Polling places are open from 8:00am to 6:00pm.
And, as ever, it is compulsory. So if you are just tuning in now...
When are we likely to see a result?
All parties are expecting a tight contest.
At the 2019 election, Labor claimed victory two days after the election. However the Liberals did not concede defeat for about a fortnight.
But despite a slower-than-normal count due to social distancing measures, the ABC's election analyst, Antony Green, is expecting a result to be clear late on Saturday night.
The large volume of postal and pre-poll votes will not necessarily slow down the count, as they will be counted on election night along with the ballots from Saturday.
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2020-07-03 19:30:46Z
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