COVID-19 modelling suggests young adults 'peak spreaders' of the virus, should be prioritised for vaccination - ABC News

Young adults are considered "peak spreaders" of COVID-19 and should be the priority of the vaccine rollout, according to new scientific modelling, which suggests the country has the capacity to inoculate most eligible Australians by the end of November.

Key points:

• The government has released modelling by the Doherty Institute used to determine what level of COVID-19 vaccination is needed to reopen the country
• Australia will have the capacity to vaccinate 80 per cent of Australians by December, the modelling shows
• It also suggests the vaccination strategy needs to begin focussing on young adults, who are the main transmitters of the virus

The federal government today released the Doherty Institute's modelling, which National Cabinet is using as a guide to chart a pathway out of the pandemic.

According to the document, the vaccine rollout has rightly focused on older Australians, who are at most risk of serious illness and death, but now a "reorientation" of the program is required to target "key transmitting groups". 

The Doherty Institute's Jodie McVernon said access should be opened up to the 30 to 39 age group from the beginning of September, and the 16-29 cohort from early October, which is broadly in line with the current strategy. 

Catch up on the main COVID-19 news from August 3 with a look back at our blog.

Vaccinating children, she said, would have little impact on transmission.

"Children can get COVID and we are concerned about them becoming infected and infectious, but they're nowhere near as good at it as their parents are," Professor McVernon said. 

"So in this virus's case, it's really the 20 to 29 category who are the peak spreaders." 

Minor restrictions would turn COVID-19 'bushfire' into controlled burn

According to the Doherty Institute's modelling, 70 per cent of people over 16 should be vaccinated before the country can move into the next phase of the plan, when restrictions would be eased on vaccinated Australians and the cap on international arrivals restored to 6,000 people a week.

It suggests Australia will have the capacity to vaccinate 70 per cent of the eligible population by November 1, and 80 per cent by November 22.

Professor McVernon said once Australia achieves that threshold, there will no longer be a need for "stringent" lockdowns but some restrictions would still be required.

If restrictions were abandoned altogether at 70 per cent vaccine coverage, there would still be hundreds of thousands of COVID cases within the first six months, and nearly 2,000 deaths— most of which would be unvaccinated people, according to the Institute.

But by maintaining social distancing, capacity limits at venues and effective contact tracing, the number of deaths could be reduced to as few as 16 people.

"It could help to turn what might otherwise be a bushfire into more of a controlled backburn and keep case numbers low," she said.

"Vaccination alone is a very big part of the answer, but it is not the whole answer ... we must maintain ongoing public health and social measures."

The Doherty Institute considered the impact of COVID-19 after vaccinations if some restrictions, like caps on wedding attendees, were maintained.(

By James Simpson

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Prime Minister Scott Morrison, who has long argued Australia needs to learn to live with the virus, also played down the data. 

"What has been modelled here is a scenario at those levels of vaccination where there is an uncontrolled outbreak that runs for 180 days, so it's not like an annual fatality figure of vaccinations at that rate" he said. 

"I have no doubt that if such a scenario were to eventuate, then there are additional measures that would be taken to avert those types of outcomes." 

Only a handful of countries, including the United Kingdom and Israel, have fully vaccinated more than 70 per cent of their adult populations, while the United States is at just under 60 per cent.

The government maintains it is on track to offer all Australians a COVID-19 vaccine by Christmas.

Read more about the vaccine rollout:

But Mr Morrison rejected Labor's call for financial incentives to be offered to encourage as many people as possible to get a jab.

"This is a serious public health crisis, it's not a game show," he said. 

"It's very important that we continue to respect how Australians are engaging with this process, so if they do have hesitancy about vaccines I'm not going to pay them off, I'm going to pay a GP to sit down with them." 

The Doherty Institute did not model the impact incentives could have on vaccination rates. 

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https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMicGh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIxLTA4LTAzL3Njb3R0LW1vcmlzb24tZG9oZXJ0eS1pbnN0aXR1dGUtbW9kZWxsaW5nLWNvdmlkLXZhY2NpbmUtdGFyZ2V0cy8xMDAzNDQ3NjDSAShodHRwczovL2FtcC5hYmMubmV0LmF1L2FydGljbGUvMTAwMzQ0NzYw?oc=5

2021-08-03 05:35:01Z
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