1. Anthony Van Dyck: Responsible for the best Melbourne Cup trial when second to Verry Elleegant in the Caulfield Cup being wide from an outside barrier. An Epsom Derby winner but untried over the 3200 metres. Weight is the query but from the three gate should be given a comfortable passage by Hugh Bowman. One of the top hopes.
2. Avilius: Should have finished closer than 2.65 lengths sixth in the Caulfield Cup but his ability over the distance in this grade is questionable. Hasn’t won since September 2019 but put into relaxation mode early could give a sight, particularly with the Cummings influence: trainer James, grandson of the legendary 12-time winner Bart.
3. Vow And Declare: Won the corresponding event last year with only 52kg and a perfect ride. Rises 5kg and recent form common. Melbourne Cup winners are noted for repeating the strong performance on the day. Blinkers will help, too.
4. Master Of Reality: Contributed to havoc last year in the Melbourne Cup when finishing second but relegated to fourth. Recent Irish efforts strong and one of the Lloyd Williams team. Will benefit from Ben Melham who replaces last year’s navigator, Frankie Dettori.
5. Sir Dragonet: One of the main hopes being an Irish-bred on an upward spiral having only 10 starts, including his Cox Plate triumph at Moonee Valley recently. With Glen Boss he will have the navigational assistance required. Best on a soft surface is a niggling doubt, but still one of the main chances.
6. Twilight Payment: An eight-year-old also with the Lloyd Williams involvement. Solid effort in the Melbourne Cup last year, beaten four lengths, and Irish form indicates he is going better. Effective on good and slow. A cog under the top bracket.
Caulfield Cup winner Verry Elleegant looks like the one to beat at Flemington on Tuesday.Credit:Getty
7. Verry Elleegant: Elegant she isn’t but as courageous as they come. Winner of six group 1s including the Caulfield Cup last start on the soft, her preferred ground, but won previously on the Flemington good. Has class but weight - 55.5kg - for a five-year-old mare is the steadying factor over her first attempt at the journey. The horse to beat.
8. Mustajeer: Some rating servicess assess him highly but it’s difficult to understand why, being past the age of improvement at eight. Two unplaced starts over the 3200 metres, including a fifth in the much easier Sydney Cup, are hardly credentials to enthuse over.
9. Stratum Albion: The major plus for this Brit-bred eight-year-old is Willie Mullins, the Irish trainer with a touch of Dermot Weld, his compatriot who had a knack with Melbourne Cups. Hurdle form crops up in his record, albeit as a conditioning process, can be a negative but be wary of him.
10. Dashing Willoughby: Knuckled at the start and speared to the lead so it wasn’t surprising he stopped in the Caulfield Cup. Being a five-year-old he could progress but finished behind Stratum Albion at York (UK) two starts back so form and barrier (19) are queries.
Top jockey Jamie Kah is looking to be the second female hoop to win the race that stops the nation and rides two-time Cup placegetter Prince of Arran.Credit:Getty Images
11. Finche: Hasn’t been far away from stablemate Verry Elleegant, prepared by Chris Waller, at his past two starts and usually gives the impression he can do better. Figured prominently in the last two Melbourne Cups and from the six gate should be given a good passage by James McDonald. Major each-way hope.
12. Prince Of Arran: Strong fourth in the Caulfield Cup, a good recommendation and has not finished worse than fourth in seven Australian starts. A British eight-year-old with 44 starts isn’t an enticement but Jamie Kah, out to do a Michelle Payne and be the second female to take the Big One, from the inside gate is. Yes, he’ll stay the metric two miles but class is questionable.
13. Surprise Baby: A six-year-old gelding with only 13 starts he ticks most boxes, apart from a race this preparation longer than 2000m, once a necessity but now just a query. The gelding was only ninth in the Turnbull but was held up between the 500m and 200m. He was an unlucky fifth in the Melbourne Cup last year and has Craig Williams, brilliant in winning on Vow And Declare in 2019. One of the main chances.
14. King of Leogrance: A member of the Lloyd Williams team, which is so important because 12 months are spent getting his horses ready for the Big One. Notched the 3200m requirement winning the Adelaide Cup and while his recent efforts are moderate given a good ride he could make an impression, but after the top four.
Russian Camelot has long been among the top fancies for Tuesday's Melbourne Cup and has three-time winner Damien Oliver in the saddle.Credit:Getty Images
15. Russian Camelot: Being a four-year-old bred to Northern Hemisphere maturity could be a problem. Certainly ability and staying power aren’t despite having his first attempt at the journey. Drawn 16 but has Damien Oliver to overcome it. Should look the winner at some stage.
16. Steel Prince: Recent form consistent but class is dubious. Strong ninth beaten 2.1 lengths in the Melbourne Cup last year but with the benefit of five extra whip strikes. The 21 gate is another problem that sees him below the top rung.
17. The Chosen One: A good ride from the five gate could keep him the race for a considerable period judging by his Caulfield Cup third and his fast finishing second the Sydney Cup (3200m). Acts on fast and slow. Outside chance.
18. Ashrun: German stayer who was strong to the line in Saturday’s Hotham at Flemington, possibly lacking depth. Being a five-year-old he should improve but the 24 starting point is a negative. Being trained by Andreas Wohler, who won the Melbourne Cup with Protectionist in 2014, isn’t.
19. Warning: Successful in the Victoria Derby last year but hasn’t lived up to that potential in nine races since. Failed in the Caulfield Cup but does better at Flemington. While he could appreciate the distance, quality is questionable.
20. Etah James: Sydney Cup winner over the distance but now an eight-year-old mare, with a reasonable fourth in the Moonee Valley Cup last start. Tested against this quality.
21. Tiger Moth: Has the benefit of an Irish training genius, Aidan O’Brien. but a Northern Hemisphere four-year-old going into a Melbourne Cup with only four starts doesn’t resonate. No doubt he’s very promising but from the 23 start, even with the assistance of Kerrin McEvoy, in what looks a very strong chapter he will want to be outstanding. Not for me to win but still must be top six.
22. Oceanex: Returned to reasonable if not strong form with third to Miami Bound in the Moonee Valley Cup but will need to improve even further to figure in this.
23. Miami Bound: Victoria Oaks winner, effective on soft or good, moved into contention with a strong Moonee Valley Cup triumph last start. Prepared by Danny O’Brien, successful with Vow And Declare last year, the timing appears spot on for a bold performance and worthy of respect at long odds.
24. Persan: Aussie-bred who likes Flemington with four wins from five attempts. First try at 3200m but ran a strong 2500m in the Bart Cummings last start. Class is questionable but balanced with 51kg could bring him into the race should he overcome the 20 barrier, a big ask.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiemh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LnRoZWFnZS5jb20uYXUvc3BvcnQvcmFjaW5nL21heC1wcmVzbmVsbC1zLWhvcnNlLWJ5LWhvcnNlLWd1aWRlLXRvLXRoZS1tZWxib3VybmUtY3VwLWZpZWxkLTIwMjAxMTAxLXA1NmFpcy5odG1s0gF6aHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAudGhlYWdlLmNvbS5hdS9zcG9ydC9yYWNpbmcvbWF4LXByZXNuZWxsLXMtaG9yc2UtYnktaG9yc2UtZ3VpZGUtdG8tdGhlLW1lbGJvdXJuZS1jdXAtZmllbGQtMjAyMDExMDEtcDU2YWlzLmh0bWw?oc=5
2020-11-02 08:45:00Z
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