Theoretical modelling shows some 36,000 people would have died from coronavirus in Victoria if physical-distancing restrictions were not put into place, Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton has said.
Key points:
- Mr Andrews said easing restrictions too soon could see even harsher rules imposed if cases of the virus spiked
- The Premier said the virus moved fast and if it got away, there was no pulling it back
- About 7,000 tests were carried out over the weekend with 17 new cases announced on Saturday and nine on Sunday
The modelling was done by epidemiologists from the Department of Health and Human Services and experts from the Peter Doherty Institute for Infection and Immunity and Monash University.
It indicates what would have happened under constant conditions if the only measures to contain the virus were isolating known infections, a travel ban and quarantining returned travellers.
"Without the physical distancing measures that have been put in place … we would have got to 58,000 infections per day at the peak," Professor Sutton said.
"Literally hundreds of thousands of Victorians infected if we just had isolation and quarantine measures in place."
Professor Sutton said 36,000 Victorians could have died — an average of 70 lives every day and up to 650 deaths in a day during the peak, which would have been in week 24.
Speaking at a press conference, Professor Sutton said the modelling showed 10,000 intensive care beds would have been needed and 9,200 Victorians would have presented to hospitals every day.
"We were never going to let this be an unmitigated pandemic in Victoria, we were always going to take actions that would flatten this curve, and they've been more successful than maybe we could have even imagined," he said.
"This is what would have been needed had we not taken the actions we did."
Your questions on coronavirus answered:
He said because physical-distancing rules were imposed, the state was now unlikely to reach 1,500 cases.
The modelling also shows a dramatic rise in the transmission of coronavirus from person to person if Victoria's current restrictions are lifted too soon.
The effective reproduction number, or Reff number, is how many people one person with the virus can infect.
Victoria's current rate is sitting below one, meaning on average each infected person is passing coronavirus on to less than one person.
If this figure is kept below one, an outbreak slowly wanes, if it is above one it grows.
But if the shutdown in the state was lifted, the modelling shows the effective reproduction rate could rise to 2.5 in three weeks, meaning 10 infected people would pass the virus on to 25 people.
The modelling says this could lead to total deaths reaching 72, hospitalisations reaching 505 and total cases rising to 8,420 in three weeks:
The modelling was released by the State Government after repeated calls from some senior members of the Opposition for the information to be made public.
Opposition health spokeswoman Georgie Crozier wrote to Professor Sutton over the weekend, formally seeking information on the health modelling the Government was using to formulate the coronavirus restrictions.
Ms Crozier said the decision-making behind the restrictions must be transparent.
Three senior Liberals also joined frontbencher Tim Smith in questioning the independence of Professor Sutton after he stuck by his decision to ban golf.
At a press conference this morning, Mr Andrews said the Governor of New York, Andrew Cuomo, wished he was having a debate about golf, instead of "having a debate about where the temporary morgues will go".
"I would love to have the pubs reopen, I would love to have footy back, [but] there's no playbook for this. We have to make the best decisions in good time with an abundance of caution," he said.
"I don't want to be too blunt but that's where it's at.
"We can't give all this progress back by letting our frustration get the better of us. No one's enjoying this, it is very difficult, but it is working."
Premier warns bars, cafes, restaurants will not open soon
Just one new case of COVID-19 being confirmed overnight taking the number of cases in Victoria to 1,329.
But Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews warned it would be some time before cafes and bars reopened, despite Victoria's low numbers.
There are 130 active cases of the virus and the death toll remains at 15.
About 7,000 tests were carried out over the weekend, with 17 new cases announced on Saturday and nine on Sunday.
Mr Andrews said one new case overnight meant the measures were working and "making a big difference".
"That gives us options down the track that are not available to so many countries across the world," he said.
But he warned people to not become complacent.
"This is not an invitation to roll back all the rules," he said.
"If people think, well this is over now, the numbers are very low, I can go back to something approaching normal — no.
"That will take off the table easing restrictions."
Victoria's state of emergency is in place until at least late May, but coronavirus restrictions are expected to be in place for much longer.
The Premier said he knew it was frustrating there was no end date for the restrictions, but warned easing the rules too soon could lead to a resurgence of the virus and even harsher restrictions.
Stay up-to-date on the coronavirus outbreak
"So many countries around the world had similar rules, they then relaxed those rules, and they've seen the virus get away from them and they are in much harsher lockdown than we are in right now," he said.
Mr Andrews also said people should not expect cafes, restaurants and bars to open their doors any time soon.
"They were closed for a reason. There might be some things we can do, some rules we can let off a little bit, but we have to be careful," he said.
What you need to know about coronavirus:
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMiY2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTA0LTIwL3ZpY3RvcmlhLXJlY29yZHMtb25lLW5ldy1jb25maXJtZWQtY29yb25hdmlydXMtY2FzZS8xMjE2MzY1ONIBJmh0dHA6Ly9hbXAuYWJjLm5ldC5hdS9hcnRpY2xlLzEyMTYzNjU4?oc=5
2020-04-20 02:38:49Z
52780731784031
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Victorian coronavirus modelling shows thousands of deaths possible without physical-distancing measures - ABC News"
Post a Comment