Mike Kelly resignation forces Eden-Monaro conversation - The Australian

At a time when nobody wants to talk about politics, particularly politicians, Mike Kelly’s resignation from parliament in the seat of Eden-Monaro has forced Scott Morrison, Anthony Albanese and Michael McCormack to do just that.

Despite the reluctance to talk about the old politics it took no time at all for all three leaders of the major parties torevert to time-honoured mantras and nostrums about the upcoming contest.

The Prime Minister, the Opposition Leader and the Nationals’ leader didn’t miss a beat in immediately declaring or inferring “underdog” status as they sought to manage expectations in what is going to be a vital test for all three.

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It is a contest where there are real political gains to be made and benchmarks to be set.

Apart from the novel electoral challenges presented by a novel virus and all the peculiar possibilities that go with it, suchas a campaign without campaigning, a local appeal without locals, a ballot without an Election Day and the spruiking of bipartisanshipthere are

traditional political risks in the contest.

A by-election, whenever it is held, is going to be the first electoral test for Morrison since his “miracle win” a year ago.It will be Albanese’s first ever electoral test as Labor leader and will be McCormack’s first real test as leader since hebeat off Barnaby Joyce’s challenge.

It is also a chance for the Coalition to lift its Parliamentary majority to three MPs, a chance for the Nationals to increasetheir relative strength within the Coalition and Labor’s chance to

demonstrate it’s personal negative campaign against Morrison has worked.

It is also Adam Bandt’s first electoral test as Greens leader and in a seat where there is a strong Greens’ presence and theopportunity to campaign on climate change after the summer bushfires.

It’s important to all the leaders of all the major parties. Morrison will have a chance to test whether his astronomic personalsatisfaction during the COVID-19 crisis has overcome the bad publicity he got in the region because of the bushfires.

Albanese will have to hold the seat while defending unpopular and undefined policies from

the last election and McCormack will have to hold together a brittle harmony within his party as it’s tested from the threatof NSW Deputy Premier, John Barilaro, giving up state parliament to run for the House of Representatives and potentially destabilisingthe federal

leadership.

Morrison and McCormack have both committed to running candidates for the Liberals and Nationals – guaranteeing a three-corneredcontest – and both talked about an incumbent Government not winning a seat at a by-election from the Opposition for a century.

Albanese is obviously committed and appears leaning toward backing a local mayor who was prominent during the summer bushfiresand critical of Morrison but is warning about the loss of Kelly’s “personal vote” making the ALP the underdog in the marginalseat.

They all say it’s not important because of the coronavirus pandemic but it is in these times of crisis. Besides, the lasttime a Government won a seat from the Opposition was during the Spanish flu pandemic and everyone still cites that result.

Political Editor

Canberra

Dennis Shanahan has been The Australian’s Canberra Bureau Chief and then Political Editor based in the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery since 1989 covering every Budget, election and prime minister since the... Read more

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2020-04-30 13:27:00Z
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