These delays can, in many ways, be tracked back to the infrastructure spending frenzy that Andrews, Allan and Pallas began almost the moment that Labor won office, much of it on transport.
The construction was much needed. Years of inaction by previous state governments of both stripes had left Melbourne’s rail system, in particular, languishing.
The systematic removal of level crossings, with supporting funding from a port sale, was sensible, measured and long overdue. The metro, likewise, was long identified as an important boost to capacity and is running ahead of schedule.
But the government’s successes seem to have emboldened an agenda that has plainly gotten away from them.
Among the projects delayed this week was the long-touted Airport Rail line, first floated as a possibility in 1963 but never built. Andrews and Allan had promised they would finally see the project through, and there is even federal money on the table.
Instead, Allan is mired in a stand-off with the airport over whether the airport station will be above ground or underground. The Age believes Melbourne needs a rail line to the airport and that it should have been built decades ago.
The airport opened in 1970 and, thanks to decades of buck-passing and pandering to vested interests by successive state and federal governments, Melbourne has failed to build a rail line – unlike so many other cities of its sprawling size, population and wealth.
It is a source of national embarrassment that should have been rectified long ago, and one that Andrews, along with Allan in her role as transport infrastructure minister, promised repeatedly would be.
This week’s state budget all but abandoned the project again, by delaying it for another four years. It was, sadly, the right decision. Victoria cannot currently afford the railway line.
There are so many big projects — in health, in education, in justice, to name a few areas — that Victoria still needs. And yet thanks to the largesse thrust upon transport projects, the state cannot now afford them.
The immense North East Link project is a great example of just how badly wrong Andrews and Allan have got it when it comes to costing these projects.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Premier Jacinta Allan touring the North East Link site on Thursday.Credit: Joe Armao
When the pair promised the North East Link in 2016, its proposed cost was $10 billion. Then, in 2017, the budget was expanded to $16.5 billion. Now, it is a ludicrous $26 billion.
A $3.25 billion contribution from the federal government, announced this week, barely touches the sides of the blowout and presumably comes at the expense of other things Canberra could be funding in this state.
The 2018 business case for the road showed a benefit to Victoria of $1.30 for every dollar spent on it. We can now assume that document is entirely unrelated to the reality of what is being built.
Allan should have seen this train wreck coming in 2014 when she, Andrews and Pallas embarked on the largest transport infrastructure program this state has seen — even without the mountain of debt created by the pandemic.
The state’s debt now stands at $135.9 billion, this week’s budget showed. It will reach $189 billion within four years. The only saving grace is that the government was able to lock in low pandemic-era borrowing rates that mean interest payments as a share of state revenue will peak at 8.8 per cent compared with almost 14 per cent in the final days of the Cain-Kirner Labor government.
Adding to that debt over time will be the Suburban Rail Loop — 90 kilometres of rail line linking every major train service from the Frankston to the Werribee Line via Melbourne Airport. It was meant to cost $50 billion when Daniel Andrews announced it in 2018.
That looks optimistic now, with stage one alone costing Victorians $34.5 billion. The government isn’t sure what the second stage will cost.
Early works on the Suburban Rail Loop were delayed at this week’s budget, but for only nine months. The entire project should be put on hold. Victoria simply can no longer afford this project – it is unclear if we ever could, even at the time Andrews announced it.
Neither can Victoria currently afford a rail line to the airport, and this is a great pity as citizens of a metropolis the size of Melbourne’s should be able to access air services via trains.
Allan must ensure the project does ultimately proceed this time – with the next four years spent diligently planning the project, and gaining a realistic understanding of what it will cost.
Most Victorians want Allan to succeed on this project, and that she does not become the latest in a long line of premiers to put it into the too-hard basket.
To cast this budget as an exercise in prudence is to forgo responsibility for all the decisions and choices, for they were choices, that see Victoria’s balance sheet the weakest in the federation. Politicians who set loose a financial runaway train should not expect much credit from voters if its brakes are belatedly applied.
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2024-05-10 09:30:00Z
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