The West Australian Premier has laid out his own roadmap to reuniting with other states, and is now talking about a time when the border is down and the virus is here.
So how do we get there, and how long will it take?
Mark McGowan wants at least 80 per cent of eligible West Australians vaccinated before he will set a date for bringing down the hard border, which will likely be a couple of months after that target is reached.
Currently, WA is on track to reach 80 per cent double-dose vaccination in early December for people aged 16 and over.
But the WA government will include children aged 12 and over in its vaccination threshold, which is another deviation from the national plan, and it is not yet clear when that target will be reached.
"If we get to 80 per cent two dose vaccinated ... my aim would be to get significantly above that ... and then set a date," Mr McGowan said.
"And when you set the date, that will incentivise people to go and get vaccinated."
'Completely nuts' to open at 70 per cent
Mr McGowan said the Doherty Institute modelling indicated that opening WA's border at 70 per cent vaccination would be disastrous for the state, leading to five deaths per day.
ABC News: Steve Johns
)Under the latest modelling, if WA opened its border to NSW and Victoria at 70 per cent double-dosed vaccination — even with restrictions such as the two-square-metre rule and reduced stadium capacity — there would be hundreds of deaths, the Premier explains.
"[If we] have a high seeding event at 70 per cent two-dose vaccination, you then have around 900 people die in the next 180 days.
"I don't want to do that. The idea that all these people over in the east are saying we should do that is completely nuts."
Expert warns on current strategy
Deakin University's chair in epidemiology, Catherine Bennett, said setting a target to set a date would only further delay WA's already-lagging vaccination rate.
"Given WA now lags behind all other states and territories, there is going to be catch up time," she said.
"I'm not sure why you would have to add time on if the end point is looking like December.
"You should be able to be ready to go when you hit those targets and in fact you will probably hit them sooner if people think that is the time where you are going to open up.
"If you add months on after that then it might actually just slow you getting to 80 per cent in the first place, and that just pushes the horizon out.
"Time is still of the essence, and we should be focusing on things that bring that forward, not set it back."
Premier backs away from COVID-zero
After doubling-down on the pursuit of COVID-zero over the past two weeks, Mr McGowan now acknowledges WA would be living with the virus at some point after the border comes down.
Exactly what that will look like in WA remains unclear, but it seems targeted lockdowns and restrictions could still be possible and used when necessary to protect vulnerable communities.
"My aim is to stay in our current conditions for as long as we possibly can, get as many people vaccinated as we humanly can, before we think about bringing down borders," the Premier said.
"We get high levels of vaccination for border controls to come down, probably next year, and then we can bring down borders.
"We can have people vaccinated, and we can manage it much better than if we get an outbreak now or even at 70 per cent two-dose vaccination or even 80 per cent two-dose vaccination."
But he would not go so far as to concede living with the virus would mean accepting some deaths and hospitalisations.
ABC News: Eliza Laschon
)Asked when he needed to start having those tough conversations with people about what the reality of living with COVID in WA might mean, the Premier said it was a conversation to be had once WA had high levels of vaccination.
"Until that point in time, I think we're in a good position."
'Artificial holding pattern' in place
As Professor Bennett points out, WA's success in keeping the virus out is also a major barrier to reaching high levels of vaccination.
"The reality is that what is in place now is an artificial holding pattern while we're vaccinating, to put ourselves in the best position to live with the virus," she said.
"People need to realise how risky it is and how likely it is for the virus to get in no matter how well protected your borders are — we have seen that in New Zealand.
"The time now without the virus is precious time where you can go and queue to get the vaccine without worrying the person next to you is quite likely infected.
"That is unfortunately what happens when we have to deal with infectious diseases at a population level."
Mr McGowan knows Delta might slip into WA despite the tough border, and said that could throw the current plan out the window.
"We have done everything we can — truck drivers, ships coming in, flight crews, international travellers, whatever it is — we have done everything we can to keep the virus out.
"But you know, with COVID, it could somehow sneak in."
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2021-09-04 23:48:18Z
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