Victoria is on track to overtake NSW as Australia's worst-affected coronavirus state in 10 days, as community transmission reaches record levels in Melbourne, according to a leading epidemiologist.
Key points:
- Victoria's community transmission has increased five-fold in recent weeks
- But four times more people in NSW are receiving medical attention
- An epidemiologist said comparing the two states' curves was problematic
Yesterday, 20 COVID-19 infections in Victoria were classified as "community transmission", where the patient catches the virus locally, but from an unknown source.
Health authorities in Australia have consistently rated this type of spread as the most concerning throughout the pandemic, and yesterday's number in Victoria was a new benchmark for the state.
Dr Fiona Stanaway from the University of Sydney said Victoria's cases were surging for two reasons.
"There's an increasing rate of spread but it's also being influenced by the change to testing, they've dramatically increased testing in the hotspots ... even for asymptomatic people," she said.
Dr Stanaway said there were several ways to measure whether Victoria would surpass NSW as the country’s worst-affected coronavirus state.
Victoria has confirmed 2,231 cases since the pandemic began, while NSW's total is about 1,000 more than that, at 3,203.
But Victorian cases are growing at a rapid rate — yesterday health authorities confirmed 73 new infections.
"This is the 15th consecutive day of double-digit case growth in Victoria, with a continuing and concerning number of new cases associated with transmission in households and families," Victoria Health said in a statement.
If cases continue to grow at the current rate, Dr Stanaway said Victoria's cases would exceed NSW's within 10 days.
On the surface, the past month's figures show a grim picture: since June 1, 533 of Australia's 664 coronavirus cases were in Victoria, compared with just 105 in NSW.
But Dr Stanaway said the surging case numbers were "a little bit of a distortion" because widespread testing is taking place across hotspots in and around Melbourne.
"That curve going right up in Victoria is a combination of both what's actually happening in the outbreak and the result of picking up more people during testing than you would normally," she said.
"I'm not 100 per cent convinced that increase is as bad as what that curve is showing."
At the moment there are 370 active cases in Victoria, 15 of whom are in hospital.
But four times more people in NSW are in a serious condition — of 365 cases who have not yet tested negative for the virus, 63 are being treated by NSW Health.
"In a couple of days, particularly if NSW keeps low, I'd say Victoria will overtake NSW in terms of active cases," Dr Stanaway said.
To date, 20 people have died from coronavirus in Victoria, which is less than half of NSW's death toll of 51.
But more people are recovering in NSW: about 87 per cent, compared to 82 per cent in Victoria.
Health authorities have long said tracing the local spread of coronavirus was crucial to keeping Australia's cases low.
NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant described it as "the group that most concerns us, because it represents community transmission without a known source".
Victoria's rate of community transmission has increased five-fold in recent weeks, something SA Health Minister Stephen Wade called "worrying for the whole nation".
Yesterday also saw Victoria record its single biggest increase in coronavirus community transmissions to date.
But Dr Stanaway said the coming weeks would reveal if Victoria's cases were a short-lived spike or whether they mean a new pandemic ground zero in Australia.
"We're not two weeks in from when the new restrictions were implemented, and we're only six days in from when they started the testing blitz, so you wouldn't really be expecting a taper off yet," she said.
"In a way, it's still too early to be sure about it."
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2020-07-01 20:16:39Z
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