Victoria’s coronavirus outbreak has already spoiled plans for international students and overseas tourists to return to Australia, and there may be a further price to pay if the state is not able to get infections under control.
All other states and territories in Australia apart from Victoria and New South Wales have managed to eliminate the coronavirus and this has given them options for opening up their economies.
But the ongoing infections in Victoria in particular are costing other states.
“If we did eliminate the virus we could have had a travel bubble with Australia and New Zealand but that has now been deferred, which is also impacting other states like Queensland and Western Australia,” Grattan Institute health economist Stephen Duckett told news.com.au.
Before the outbreak in Victoria, Australia had been in talks with New Zealand, which has managed to contain COVID-19, about a possible travel bubble but this now appears to be on the backburner.
New Zealand retreated from the plan after recording new cases in late June, including two women who travelled to Auckland from the UK on compassionate grounds to see a dying relative. Victoria’s virus outbreak, which is recording daily new infections in the triple figures, has added a further disincentive.
Last week the University of Canberra and the Australian National University also announced it would postpone a pilot program to bring 350 international students to the Australian Capital Territory in late July.
“Given the recent COVID developments, the universities have decided to postpone the well-advanced pilot plan to return 350 continuing students to Canberra campuses in late July until there is a clearer picture around the COVID trajectory,” a statement released on July 9 said.
The program would have had students quarantine for 14 days in police-supervised apartments before being allowed to continue their studies.
Mr Duckett, a former secretary of the federal health department, said these cancellations were the consequences of Australia not adopting an elimination strategy.
“These are all the costs of the suppression strategy,” he told news.com.au.
“The failure to pursue an elimination strategy is very costly to the economy.”
It’s been estimated that 260,000 Chinese students enrolled in Australia bring in about $12 billion a year in revenue alone, while the tourism sector is worth about $55 billion.
There may also be more pain in store if Victoria and NSW don’t get their outbreaks under control.
RELATED: Why NSW doesn’t want to go into lockdown
RELATED: Victoria reports a record spike in cases
RISKS OF TWO-SPEED RESPONSE
Mr Duckett said one of the risks of having a “two-speed response” with one or two states struggling to contain ongoing infections was the possibility of “leakage” across the border.
“Even though Queensland has shut its border to the south, there’s always potential of border breaches, partly because people live on the border,” he said.
“While the virus is circulating in NSW and Victoria, even with border controls, there is a risk that the virus jumps the border because of the local areas around the border.”
If the virus was imported this would cause economic havoc among Queensland’s businesses. NSW has already announced further restrictions after an outbreak, which appears to have been caused by Victorians visiting the state.
But if states like Queensland decide keep their borders closed to Victoria and possibly NSW, then this can also impact them economically.
“You can partly offset the loss of international tourists in Australia through domestic tourism but this requires people from the big states — Victoria and NSW especially — to be welcome in other states,” Mr Duckett said.
Unfortunately he said the cost to Queensland’s economy if it also experienced an outbreak would be worse that the benefit to its tourism industry of opening its borders, so it would not be worth taking this risk.
RELATED: $4000 fine for Victorian visitors sneaking into Queensland
RELATED: What stage 4 restrictions in Victoria could look like
VICTORIA COULD BECOME ISOLATED
While Victoria’s outbreak has poured cold water over plans for the return of overseas tourists and international students, it’s possible that other states may still be able to move forward eventually.
Mr Duckett said he thought it would be possible for New Zealand to form a travel bubble with individual states like Queensland, although he didn’t think this was currently being planned.
Asked whether this could be a possibility, Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s office pointed news.com.au to his comments on July 10 that appeared to indicate the possibility had been discussed.
“There is still a lot more work to be done to get to a point of having that trans-Tasman safe travel zone,” Mr Morrison told reporters.
“We discussed that today at National Cabinet about what states and territories could or would participate in that so there is a bit more work to do there.
“Obviously the Victorian situation, although it is isolated, I mean the rest of the country’s seven states and territories would be potentially in a position to be involved in that.”
Mr Morrison said there was “no sort of imminent starting date” and they would wait to hear further from the New Zealanders.
In response to questions from news.com.au, New Zealand’s Minister of Foreign Affairs Winston Peters said the country’s prime ministers had committed to introducing a travel bubble as soon as it was safe to do so.
However, he did not address whether this could be restricted to certain states.
“Introducing a safe travel zone between our two countries is not a decision we can make in isolation,” Mr Winston said.
“We need to agree details with the Australian government and be confident that a range of health, transport and border requirements are met.
“There remain a range of aspects that we need to get right before any travel zone can be established and officials continue to work urgently on these.”
RELATED: Victoria’s virus result baffling experts
RELATED: All Victorians now urged to wear masks
If New Zealand was to agree to a travel bubble with individual Australian states, Mr Duckett believes this would be contingent on states keeping their borders closed to places like Victoria.
“If I was New Zealand I wouldn’t have a travel bubble with Victoria, why would you? It’s too costly,” he said.
With closed borders, it may also be possible for other states to accept international students again as long as they were willing to undertake a two-week quarantine.
“In Victoria, they can’t even bring back students because there are no classes, universities are shut down,” Mr Duckett said.
This means if Victoria is not able to get on top of its infections, it could be left isolated while other states get their tourism and university sectors back up and running again.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMipAFodHRwczovL3d3dy5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9maW5hbmNlL2Vjb25vbXkvYXVzdHJhbGlhbi1lY29ub215L3ZpY3RvcmlhLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW91dGJyZWFrLWhvdy1vdGhlci1zdGF0ZXMtYXJlLWxvc2luZy1vdXQvbmV3cy1zdG9yeS8yYzQ0Mzg1YTJkOTM0ZWRkOWUxZjJmMDAwNDY4Nzc1MNIBpAFodHRwczovL2FtcC5uZXdzLmNvbS5hdS9maW5hbmNlL2Vjb25vbXkvYXVzdHJhbGlhbi1lY29ub215L3ZpY3RvcmlhLWNvcm9uYXZpcnVzLW91dGJyZWFrLWhvdy1vdGhlci1zdGF0ZXMtYXJlLWxvc2luZy1vdXQvbmV3cy1zdG9yeS8yYzQ0Mzg1YTJkOTM0ZWRkOWUxZjJmMDAwNDY4Nzc1MA?oc=5
2020-07-19 05:59:36Z
52780934657326
Bagikan Berita Ini
0 Response to "Victoria coronavirus outbreak: How other states are losing out - NEWS.com.au"
Post a Comment