But Professor Sutton still did not advise a stage four lockdown, citing the economic devastation the move would bring and expressing the hope that the mandatory use of face masks in the lockdown zone could be a "game-changer" in the fight to bring the second surge under control.
The Australian Defence Force is now deployed on the state’s troubled contact-tracing effort with Premier Daniel Andrews pledging that each of Friday's 300 new cases would be contacted. Police and army members would arrive within two hours at the doors of those who did not respond to attempts to contact them.
Five of Friday's dead were linked to aged care homes. There are 466 cases currently linked to aged care homes. Sixty-six homes have reported cases since the start of June. At least 19 of Victoria's 56 deaths have been linked to aged care homes.
The virus is hitting younger Victorians too, with 19 of the 41 people in intensive care on Friday aged under 59 years and five ICU patients aged under 39 years. Five non-ICU patients are in their 20s and two are aged between 5 and 19 years.
In other developments on Friday, a number of clusters grew further, with cases at Bertocchi Smallgoods in Thomastown leaping to 57 from 10 on Thursday. Three people in the public housing tower in Dorcas Street, South Melbourne, have tested positive to the virus, the Heath Department has confirmed.
Case numbers in regional Victoria have also grown with 29 now reported in Geelong while a cluster at Colac's Australian Lamb Company has reached 43.
Sixteen people fined $200 each for failing to wear mask were among 101 people in the past 24 hours who failed to comply with lockdown directions.
Professor Sutton said the high daily numbers of positive cases meant there would be several tragic deaths each day for several weeks to come.
“Whenever you have hundreds of new cases a day, there will be several people who are expected to die in the following two-week period. I expect that to occur,” the Chief Health Officer said.
“That's very tragic and it is focused on those who are most vulnerable.”
Western Health Registered Nurse Kate Wight has been working with COVID-19 patients at Footscray hospital.Credit:Penny Stephens
The Premier said the military would be deployed to help address the "serious concern" that some positive cases are not responding to calls from health authorities.
"If you don't answer, or if you're not in a position to do the interview, then we will be coming to you," Mr Andrews said. "ADF and authorised staff will visit you, they'll conduct the interview on your doorstep."
Infectious diseases physician Professor Peter Collignon from the Australian National University estimated Victoria’s death toll would not peak for at least another two weeks.
“I will expect three or four or five deaths a day for the next coming few weeks depending what the numbers start doing," he said.
Premier Daniel Andrews after Friday's press conference.Credit:Justin McManus
Professor Collignon said one death could be expected from 100 diagnoses but mortality rates among patients aged more than 80 years were as high 15 per cent and up to 20 per cent among aged care residents, underscoring the scale of the aged care crisis.
“There is about a two-week delay between the diagnosis of a case and death,” Professor Collignon said.
“So when you see a peak of cases, and hopefully we’ve already seen the peak in Victoria and it will start going down, your peak deaths will be in two weeks from then.”
COVID-19 patients often took between five and seven days to get seriously ill, develop pneumonia, be hospitalised and then be admitted to intensive care, Professor Collignon said.
Lung failure was the big killer of those who succumbed to the illness, Austin Hospital’s intensive care director Dr Stephen Warrilow said. "That doesn’t respond to anything that we try.”
Others died of multiple organ failure, he said. The 48-year-old doctor said he had been personally confronted in recent days to see healthy people his own age needing intensive care.
“To see someone who was in really good health ... a week ago critically ill and at pretty high risk of dying makes you realise that we all have to have a pretty healthy regard for this,” Dr Warrilow said.
“No one can truly feel safe."
Brigid Algie, a nurse at the Austin Hospital. Credit:Eddie Jim
The Alfred hospital intensive care specialist David Pilcher said elderly and frail people might succumb very quickly to coronavirus but there was often a lag of many days before other patients deteriorated to the point of needing a ventilator.
“Thankfully the majority will improve, but some don’t,” Professor Pilcher said.
“[Then] it takes some time for those deaths to manifest in the numbers because we have been trying to keep them alive and try to make them better.”
Noel Towell is State Political Editor for The Age
Melissa Cunningham is The Age's health reporter.
Aisha Dow reports on health for The Age and is a former city reporter.
Michael is a state political reporter for The Age.
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2020-07-24 09:45:00Z
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