By The Herald's View
The fifth week of lockdown is now ending with little sign that Sydney is bringing the latest outbreak under control. It is time for a new approach.
Until now NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian has opted for a “proportionate” response to the outbreak that was originally known as the Bondi cluster. Shunning the hard lockdowns in other states, she carefully targeted measures at the most likely channels of infection in order to limit the economic and social costs.
Unfortunately, at each stage NSW has underestimated the risk of contagion from the new Delta variant of the virus and overestimated the power of its “gold standard” contact tracing to combat it.
It is now clear NSW should have gone much harder and much faster and thrown everything at the Bondi cluster from day one.
NSW announced an inadequate soft lockdown in four local government areas, including the CBD and Sydney’s east, on June 26. It has since had to extend it and deepen it to many more areas of the city.
At each stage the virus has jumped the containment lines and NSW had to catch up. Initially Ms Berejiklian left enforcement of the rules up to “common sense”. On Thursday she called in the army.
No-one can know what would have happened if she had followed a more proactive approach but there is a strong likelihood she would have contained this virulent virus by now.
It is frustrating that Ms Berejiklian and Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant have not publicly acknowledged this failure. On Friday Ms Berejiklian attacked “armchair experts” who disputed her decisions.
Ms Berejiklian says she has listened to the health advice but there is always room for interpretation on how it is subsequently applied. Either way, she cannot pass this buck. It is her responsibility as Premier to stand up to pressure from within her cabinet, from commentators and from vested business interests. These are not easy decisions but they are hers to make and be judged on.
The experience of Victoria’s long lockdown last year should have been in the front of her mind. Premier Daniel Andrews also thought he could use precision surgery to cut out a tumour at the start of that disaster and realised too late he had missed the cancer spreading all over the state.
This criticism is not just about scoring political points or being wise in hindsight. The reason to raise these failures now is because Ms Berejiklian must not follow the same approach and keep hoping for the best in the future.
To be clear, some of the problems have been fixed. The gaping holes in the early stages of NSW lockdown have been plugged. Despite the slow start, Sydney’s lockdown is now in some ways tougher than Victoria’s. For example, the building industry has been closed and essential workers in the eight local government areas must undergo compulsory testing if they leave the area.
But more can be done. Many experts have called for NSW to extend the tough restrictions in the eight hotspot LGAs – such as wearing masks outdoors and police enforcement – to the rest of the city. While seemingly harsh, given many areas have not recorded a case for weeks, the logic is obvious.
Based on the experience of the past six weeks it is only a matter of time before the virus jumps the imaginary fence around the LGAs and heads north and east. By then it will be too late.
A city-wide approach would also send a message of solidarity and support to the eight LGAs by showing that the rules apply not just to ethnically diverse and disadvantaged communities but extend to the whole city.
Ms Berejiklian should also resist pressure she faces to ease up prematurely on existing regulations.
It is worrying that building sites are due to reopen outside the eight restricted precincts tomorrow. Similarly, if there was one highly infectious person near to last Saturday’s protest, others will almost certainly have been in the crowd.
The decision to allow 50,000 year 12 students to return to classes from August 16 is also perplexing. Even if they are vaccinated with Pfizer, as Ms Berejiklian promised on Friday, the potential remains for the disease to spread far and wide. The Herald hopes a string of additional measures including classroom social distancing, masks and most importantly the urgent vaccination of their teachers is also fast-tracked. But the option to delay the return of classes remains. It would be a painful blow to students who will have to prepare for exams at home but last year Victoria showed it could be done.
Of course, opponents of lockdown will condemn some of these measures as overkill and they are right that in some cases they will make only a small difference to the direct risk of the disease. Businesses will complain about the enormous cost.
But the Herald has lost faith in a policy based on half measures. The numbers tell the story. On Friday, Sydney recorded 170 cases and only 65 of them were in isolation while infectious. Things are not getting better. Until the numbers reverse dramatically, NSW will have to take this pain.
Note from the Editor
The Herald editor Lisa Davies writes a weekly newsletter exclusively for subscribers. To have it delivered to your inbox, please sign up here.
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2021-07-30 05:41:26Z
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