The reclassification of two COVID-19 cases in Melbourne's outbreak as false positives has led to hopes that Melbourne's lockdown might end earlier than expected.
Key points:
- Two so-called 'fleeting transmission' cases in Melbourne have been ruled false positives
- Key epidemiologists say it might mean Melbourne could exit lockdown earlier than expected
- Health leaders have been troubled by the danger posed by the Kappa COVID-19 variant
Yesterday, Victoria's Health Department announced an expert review panel determined that two cases that had troubled public health officials and were used to demonstrate the highly infectious nature of the coronavirus variant were false positives.
There are now 61 cases in Victoria's outbreak.
The cases had been cited by health officials as examples of the virus being transmitted through "fleeting contact" contributing to the decision earlier this week to extend Melbourne's lockdown from seven days to 14 days.
As Melbourne enters the second week of the "circuit-breaker" lockdown today, epidemiologists have described the development as "good news".
Two experts have told the ABC it might mean Melbourne can come out of lockdown earlier than expected.
A woman earlier thought to have acquired the virus at a display home in Mickleham and a man who was understood to have contracted COVID-19 at the Brighton Beach Hotel have now been removed from the state's official case count.
The two venues remain exposure sites because they are linked to other cases.
ABC News: Patrick Rocca
)'Earlier end to lockdown' possible, epidemiologists say
The cases were described by health officials as two examples of six where the virus was transmitted through "fleeting contact" between strangers.
The spread of the Kappa strain of COVID-19 is one of the reasons behind Melbourne's extended lockdown.
As a result of the reclassification, all exposure sites linked to the two cases have been stood down.
This includes all exposure sites in Anglesea, along the state's Surf Coast.
ABC News: Erin Cooper
)Chair of Epidemiology at Deakin University, Catherine Bennett said it was "very good news" that the cases had been reclassified as false positives.
"It could put us in a very good position to look for an earlier end to lockdown," Professor Bennett said.
"This just shows us that we are even closer to the leading edge of this outbreak," she said.
Epidemiologist Tony Blakely from the University of Melbourne said: "Maybe we'll get out of this lockdown before another week is up.
"Things now look a little bit better and maybe we won't need another week lockdown, but it's impossible to predict that accurately."
He said he thought contact tracing and the response to the outbreak by Victorian authorities had been "pretty good".
"As long as we don't see that many more, maybe just one or two cases occurring outside of people who are already isolated, I think we're on top of it.
"I hope we're on top of it and maybe we can get out of this lockdown say early next week, rather than late next week," he said.
However, Professor Blakely cautioned that while the expert review panel had removed two cases from the list, four short-duration cases remained.
"So the 'fleeting transmission' — seems to be a new word in the COVID vocabulary — has still occurred," he said.
He also warned that the state was "without doubt dealing with a more infectious virus" than it had in previous outbreaks.
Professor Bennett said it was a "great relief" that two of the cases that had been troubling health authorities had been removed.
"That's a big shift away from those particularly worrying, more casual, not direct transmission events," she said.
She said it reduced the number of such events down from about 10 per cent of the outbreak's cases, to around five per cent.
"It shows it to be a very small proportion of our overall outbreak and that's incredibly important.
"We've got 95 per cent of these cases mapped, where we've got all of the information and that's an incredible outcome.
"It also means the more remote risks aren't anywhere near as common as we thought," she said.
She said it might well help shorten the length of the lockdown.
'Very rare' false positives
Professor Blakely said false positives could occur if there was contamination of one sample with another or if the person had previously been infected with COVID-19.
Professor Bennett said the detection of false positives was also "good news".
"It shows how robust our review process is for our test results.
"Even if false results are very rare, you're more likely to see them just because we're dealing with such a large volume of tests," she said.
Victoria notched up another daily record with 57,519 coronavirus tests carried out.
'Tempering of language'
Professor Bennett said she had heard some "tempering of the language" around the virus variant after Chief Health Officer Brett Sutton called it a "beast" earlier in the week.
"I do think it's good to have people understanding that this is one of the newer variants, it is more infectious but it's not in the kind of league where we can't control it, and that's really important for people to know," she said.
She said it was likely the Health Department would be "very reassured themselves and I'm sure we'll hear a difference in tone".
ABC News: Danielle Bonica
)Earlier yesterday, public health authorities would not commit to a further easing of restrictions in Melbourne.
"It is a day-by-day analysis of how we are tracking, and if we can do things earlier we will, but the advice from public health has been we need a further seven days in Melbourne to chase this down to the end," acting premier James Merlino said.
All Melburnians will be watching closely today to see if the reclassification of the two cases will be enough to help bring about an earlier than expected end to the city's fourth lockdown.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMicWh0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIxLTA2LTA0L2hvcGUtZm9yLWVhcmx5LWVuZC10by1tZWxib3VybmUtbG9ja2Rvd24tdHdvLWZhbHNlLXBvc2l0dmUtY2FzZXMvMTAwMTg4MzM00gEoaHR0cHM6Ly9hbXAuYWJjLm5ldC5hdS9hcnRpY2xlLzEwMDE4ODMzNA?oc=5
2021-06-03 14:11:04Z
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