Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews is considering further easing of the coronavirus restrictions on Sunday, when Melbourne should meet the criteria to move to step 2 of the roadmap out of COVID-19.
Key points:
- Mary-Louise McLaws says Victoria needs to get case numbers down to five cases per day
- Catherine Bennett wants to see step three come forward
- Tony Blakely said any changes must balance more civil liberties with falling case numbers
At a media conference on Wednesday, he said the changes to be announced were "nowhere near settled" and they only wanted to do things that were safe.
The risks are still being assessed based on a "deep analysis of the actual data", then trying to extrapolate about what that says about the next few weeks going forward.
The first step of the roadmap has already been altered, with the curfew kicking in an hour later and an extension of the time people can get together outdoors. Social bubbles have also been created.
Melbourne has already reached the trigger for step 2 on September 28 by having an average daily case rate of 30-50 cases. Wednesday's average was 29.4.
Regional Victoria is already on step 3.
When step 2 comes into force in Melbourne, outdoor gatherings of up to five people from two households will be allowed.
Childcare and early education will reopen and there will be a phased return to onsite learning for the youngest and the oldest children.
More workplaces will be permitted to reopen with a COVID-safe plan, allowing 101,000 workers to return to their jobs.
It's all about contact tracing in a timely manner
Mr Andrews said any changes would be dependent on having enough people getting tested to provide a "clear picture" of how much virus is out there.
Deputy Chief Health Officer Allen Cheng said if health officials can keep a lid on all of the last cases, the average case number could fall fairly quickly.
"But … one case that happens to be in the wrong place before they become symptomatic or in a situation where they can spread to a lot of people and it can be away very quickly," he said.
Epidemiologist Mary-Louise McLaws, an advisor to the World Health Organization, supports that cautious approach.
"I admire the achievement of the Victorians. Sadly, they [Victorians] need to hold their mettle and hold the line," Professor McLaws said.
She does not advocate any easing of restrictions in metropolitan Melbourne, saying they should remain in place until case numbers fall to five a day, to ensure contact tracing can be done in a timely manner.
For example, highly mobile young people could have 10 contacts a day, or 140 over a two-week period.
She said a contact tracer would have to speak to 140 people within 72 hours in order to prevent the rapid spread of an outbreak.
Five cases a day makes that target achievable, she said.
"It's all about maximising the ability to do a rapid, really good contact tracing within two days, and then put in place proper checks and balances," she said.
From an outbreak management perspective, she said, the "only safe option" to further ease restrictions would be in regional Victoria.
She said more freedom of movement could be allowed in border regions with New South Wales and South Australia.
'We don't need baby steps'
Epidemiologist Catherine Bennett from Deakin University has a different view — she thinks Victoria has met the target for new cases and restrictions should be eased.
"I'd like to see step 3 come forward," she said.
She said there was plenty of time built into the roadmap to be sure what was being done was working and the public will be clear about what they can and cannot do.
"If people are taking care and we're moving to step three … [the outbreak] is contained, it's not high-risk," she said.
"It's better to do that than take bits off. We don't need baby steps in between."
Victorian Opposition Leader Michael O'Brien said the Premier was trying to under-promise on restrictions and over-deliver.
"It's all about political spin and management," he said.
"We expect Sunday's roadmap to be a lot more generous than his previous roadmap."
Tony Blakely from the University of Melbourne said the roadmap has good bones and a much more significant easing of restrictions is planned for October.
He suggests relaxing the curfew and the 5-kilometre zone and bringing forward household bubbles.
There should also be some measures to get people back into economic activity, he said.
"Whatever the mix, it will be important to settle on something that is a balance of increasing liberties and social interaction and opening up the economy a bit — without unduly slowing the rate of fall in cases," Professor Blakely said.
https://news.google.com/__i/rss/rd/articles/CBMib2h0dHBzOi8vd3d3LmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvbmV3cy8yMDIwLTA5LTI0L21vcmUtcmVzdHJpY3Rpb25zLW1heS1iZS1lYXNlZC1vbi1zdW5kYXktaGVyZXMtd2hhdC1idXNpbmVzcy1oZS8xMjY5NDU0ONIBJ2h0dHBzOi8vYW1wLmFiYy5uZXQuYXUvYXJ0aWNsZS8xMjY5NDU0OA?oc=5
2020-09-23 20:35:00Z
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