The government has dropped the modelling that underpins its net zero emissions by 2050 plan, two weeks after it announced the target.
It involves a lot of assumptions on what countries around the world are going to do in the coming decades, what the demand will be for renewables and fossil fuels and also on how quickly technology will develop.
If you want to read it yourself, the full 100-page modelling is publicly available.
Otherwise, here are some of the key takeaways.
Only 85pc emissions reduction
Firstly, the modelling compared two "scenarios" for Australia — one where we didn't commit to net zero, and one where we did.
Under the first scenario, we would reduce emissions by 51 per cent by 2050.
The modelling also makes it very clear that, at the moment, while the target is for net zero, the government's plan will only reduce emissions by 85 per cent based on 2005 levels.
Most of that comes from "low emissions technologies" the government is focusing on like carbon capture and storage and "green hydrogen", but the last 15 per cent of emissions reductions will come from technology that doesn't exist yet.
Mr Morrison has previously pushed back at criticism of that part of the government's plan saying some of the world's biggest technology developments were unpredictable.
"Everyone who thinks technology can't achieve it mustn't be aware of what Bill Gates has been able to achieve and what Steve Jobs was able to achieve," he said last month.
In the modelling, there's also a note that when it comes to innovation and technology, it can be hard to look in the future and accurately estimate what effect it'll have on emissions reductions and the cost of things like renewables.
Labor has previously criticised the government's plan for lacking detail, including for how the final 15 per cent of emissions reductions will be reached.
Demand for coal to halve
Before the announcement of the net zero target, Energy Minister Angus Taylor said there would be a "great future" for both coal and gas even under the emissions reduction plan.
But according to the modelling, whichever way the government looks at it there's going to be a fall in the value of coal by around 50 per cent between now and 2050.
Growth of gas is also expected to slow.
On the flip side, agriculture is expected to grow by around 30 per cent, mining by 5 per cent and heavy industries around 110 per cent thanks in large part to mining for things like critical minerals (think lithium, which is needed for renewable energy storage).
90pc of vehicles will be electric
Two of the big sectors that the modelling sees "decarbonising" between now and 2050 are energy and road transport — and it makes the point that both are well on the way right now.
It forecasts that by 2050, 90 per cent of vehicles will be electric and emit zero emissions. It's a big jump given currently they make up around 1 per cent of all vehicles.
The government recently announced its plan for electric vehicles, committing $250 million to more charging infrastructure but ruling out putting in incentives to make buying electric cars cheaper, or disincentives to make petrol and diesel cars more unattractive.
With that in mind, it seems that it's relying on the private sector and demand for EVs to drive the uptake in them to get us to 90 per cent in the next 30-odd years.
Up to 100,000 new jobs
The government had already spruiked that its plan would create up to 62,000 jobs in regional Australia in things like mining and heavy industry, and up to 76,000 if you include jobs in renewables needed to fuel hydrogen production.
But according to its modelling, the total figure could be higher than that.
Including "export and domestic sectors", by 2050 it estimates the total to be over 100,000 new jobs, with most of the additional positions in manufacturing related to local energy production like building wind turbines and other infrastructure to support renewables.
It does, however, note that there will be job losses, most of which will be "driven by changes in global demand" which, it stresses, "[is] not within the control of Australian industries or the Australian government".
There isn't any mention of how many positions renewable energy projects themselves could create, with the Climate Council previously suggesting up to 76,000 jobs could be created if there was more government investment in the area.
Punishment for not signing up
It was flagged by Treasurer Josh Frydenberg before the net zero target was announced, but the modelling also spells out that "global responses would have significant economic impacts if Australia does not adopt a net zero target".
AKA, we would've been at the mercy of other countries who've threatened to impose sanctions or tariffs on nations who don't commit to net zero and show they're committed to reducing carbon emissions.
The modelling showed the penalties dolled out to us if we didn't sign up would've meant on average 2.7 per cent lower investment in 2050 and knock-on effects for GDP and our national income.
But it also notes this is just a hypothetical financial penalty and didn't take into account other punishments that we could've faced like trade sanctions.
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2021-11-12 07:14:48Z
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