High temperatures Monday managed to reach the low-to-mid 70s thanks to late-day sunshine, but the above normal temperatures won’t be back for at least a week and a half and we’re expecting the coldest airmass that we’ve seen in over a decade to march in late this weekend. Thanks to an overnight cold front, temperatures today are starting out in the 30s and low 40s with cloudy skies. Skies stay mostly cloudy to overcast all day long and that’ll help to keep daytime temperatures in the low-to-mid 40s. We do have some rain on the way Wednesday and Thursday before temperatures fall again this weekend. The most significant of the cold air arrives Sunday and Monday when temperatures should stay below freezing throughout the entire day. We’ll also have to keep an eye on the potential for three chances of wintry precipitation.
Day-By-Day Weather Breakdown:
Tuesday: A cold front has moved almost completely through the area and temperatures are colder and will be staying colder. Morning temperatures are starting out in the 30s and low-to-mid 40s with cloudy skies. Skies remain clouded over all day long and temperatures will reach the low-to-mid 40s for highs. It could be slightly warmer east of I-35 but we’re not expecting late-day temperatures in the 50s. Although we’re not expecting much steady precipitation, we’ll have a chance for some isolated drizzle through the start of the day.
Wednesday: Scattered light rain is expected during the pre-dawn and morning hours before likely tapering off midday and then returning in the afternoon. Skies stay socked in with clouds all day long and morning lows in the 30s and low 40s should only reach the low-to-mid 40s late in the day. Scattered light rain is expected to increase in coverage during the overnight hours leading into Thursday.
Thursday: Overnight rain from Wednesday will continue Thursday morning and should continue off-and-on during the day as well before tapering off late in the afternoon and evening. We’re actually expecting some rumbles of thunder with Thursday’s precipitation despite morning temperatures in the 30s only reaching the 30s and low 40s by the end of the day (if even that). Although Thursday’s precipitation should fall as mostly rain, isolated sleet could mix in with the rain. Thankfully, the sleet won’t accumulate since surface temperatures should be just too warm for anything more than melting. Precipitation should end
Friday: Rain from Thursday should be over before sunrise but any standing water from Wednesday & Thursday’s rain could potentially ice over and create slippery sidewalks and side streets. Most surface streets and bridges and overpasses should be fine but could be slippery on an isolated basis. Mostly cloudy skies will hang around during the day Friday but some peeks of sunshine here and there should raise morning temperatures from the upper 20s into the low 40s during the afternoon. North winds will be a bit breezy at times, gusting to near 25 MPH, and wind chills should stay in the 20s and 30s all day.
Saturday: A small upper-level disturbance swings through Central Texas Saturday. The upper-level disturbance will cause a few things to happen. First off, the upper-level disturbance could maybe spark a bit of precipitation. It’s not likely that this disturbance will have enough moisture attached to it to produce very high precipitation chances, but wintry precipitation, a mix of rain/sleet/snow, could be possible. Precipitation chances are near 20% during the day and minor accumulations are possible depending on the type of precipitation that falls. The second thing the upper-level disturbance will do is kick the Arctic air pooling in the Central Plains southward into Texas. Morning temperatures in the mid-to-upper 20s should only reach the mid 30s because of the arrival of the colder air. North winds will gust to near 25 MPH during the day and wind chills will likely stay in the upper teens and 20s. Just like with Friday, don’t expect more than a few peeks of sunshine.
Sunday: The Arctic air moving in behind Saturday’s disturbance will make for a cold-hearted Valentine’s Day. Even though the record low temperature of 10° set in 1905 should be safe, the record coldest afternoon high of 31° set in 1951 is expected to be broken. North winds will be increasing during the night and will remain strong all day long. Sustained winds Sunday will be between 15 and 20 MPH and may gust to 30 MPH at times. Sunday’s morning low temperature is expected to be in the mid-teens and thanks to the strong north winds, morning wind chills will be in the single digits. In fact, some cities and towns west of I-35 could see wind chills potentially fall below zero. Both the morning temperature and wind chill temperatures Sunday are a bit uncertain right now. Some forecast models are consistently showing even colder temperature than what we have forecast so the number will be fine-tuned over the coming days. Unfortunately, skies will still stay mostly cloudy Sunday and that’ll help to keep afternoon highs in the upper 20s. Wind chills during the morning and afternoon will likely only be in the teens and shouldn’t climb above 20° all day.
Monday: Unfortunately, the bitter cold conditions Sunday shouldn’t let up on Monday either. Morning temperatures should be in the mid-to-upper teens again with wind chills in the morning potentially as low as zero. North winds will stay blustery all day long, again gusting to near 25 MPH, and the wind chills should stay in the single-digits and teens throughout the day. Morning temperatures will warm up very slowly and should peak in the upper 20s and low 30s Monday afternoon. We could also see another upper-level disturbance swing through the area Monday. Since temperatures are expected to be below freezing all day long, Monday’s disturbance will give us a 30% chance of snow flurries. Snow is expected to be light so while we could see some trace accumulations, we’re not expecting accumulations over an inch as of right now. Untreated surface streets could become slick as could bridges and overpasses.
Next Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday: Arctic air is expected to loosen the hold on Central Texas and we should slowly warm back up. Morning temperatures Tuesday should still be close to above 20°, but the winds will be much lower and wind chills will only be in the teens in the morning. With the return of a bit of sunshine, highs Tuesday should reach close to 40°. We’re still going to be back in the mid-to-upper 20s for morning temperatures Wednesday and Thursday, however partly cloudy skies and easterly winds should warm highs into the mid-to-upper 40s Wednesday before low 50s come back Thursday. We’re of course going to be excited at the prospects of some warmer weather but there’s a chance the deep chill could last into Tuesday. If that were to happen, the warm up would be delayed and wouldn’t start until Wednesday or Thursday.
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Dangerously cold temperatures arriving in a few days - KWTX
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